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特朗普访华之际，中东各国当警惕以色列破坏和平的冒险行径
豆芽派 AndyGuangzhou + 豆儿

应国家主席习近平邀请，美利坚合众国总统唐纳德·特朗普将于5月13日至15日对中国进行国事访问，这一重要外交活动聚焦中美双边关系发展，也让全球目光暂时从地区冲突转向大国合作与沟通。

然而，在这一敏感窗口期，中东各国必须高度警惕以色列可能采取的冒险军事行动——

这个长期以来在中东地区奉行强硬扩张政策的国家，极有可能借美国注意力转移之机，挑起新的冲突、发动突袭，破坏中东地区来之不易的和平曙光。

当前的中东局势，本就处于战和转换的关键阶段，历经多月战火洗礼，地区国家迫切渴望休养生息，美伊之间的谈判也已出现缓和迹象，双方围绕停火谅解备忘录的协商进入关键阶段，这为中东和平带来了难得的希望。

但这一脆弱的和平局面，正面临着以色列的严重威胁。作为美国在中东的核心盟友，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡凭借其野心勃勃的战略算计，成功将美国绑上中东战车，使其深陷与伊朗的冲突泥潭，陷入“升级无法迫使对手屈服、降级又会削弱谈判筹码”的进退两难境地，难以抽身。

事实上，美国的中东战略早已陷入结构性困境。

近年来，特朗普政府试图推行“战略收缩”，希望将有限的战略资源从无休止的中东战争中抽离，转向大国竞争等更优先的领域，但内塔尼亚胡政府的强硬立场的不断绑架，让美国的收缩计划屡屡受挫，最终陷入“越想抽身，越被绑定”的窘境。

即便内塔尼亚胡近期宣称希望逐步结束美国对以色列的军事援助，推动两国从“援助关系”转向“伙伴关系”，但其本质仍是为了进一步强化以色列的自主军事能力，为后续的单边军事行动铺路，而非真正致力于地区和平。

更值得警惕的是，以色列近期的军事动态已释放出明确的冒险信号。

以军不仅持续在黎巴嫩境内发动空袭，打死黎巴嫩真主党高级指挥官，还将军事行动扩展至利塔尼河以北地区，以军总参谋长更是直言2026年可能仍将是“充满战斗”的一年，宣称以军在针对真主党的行动中“没有行动限制”，甚至暗示已准备好对伊朗发动更广泛的军事打击。

对于美伊之间可能达成的停火协议，以色列私下里明确反对，认为这会破坏其战争目标，其安全机构已向政治领导层转达反对意见，并且正在为事态升级做准备，种种迹象表明，以色列正伺机寻找借口，制造新的冲突热点。

特朗普访华期间，美国的外交重心将全面投向中美双边议程，其对中东地区的关注度必然会有所下降，这恰恰给了以色列可乘之机。

回顾过往，以色列曾多次借国际焦点转移的窗口期，发动突袭行动，破坏地区和平进程，此前更是曾突袭位于卡塔尔的哈马斯代表团，将战火延烧至海湾阿拉伯国家，其冒险行径早已给中东各国带来了深重灾难。

如今，中东地区的和平脆弱而珍贵，无论是巴以冲突的暂时缓和，还是美伊谈判的积极进展，都经不起任何外部的破坏与冲击，一旦以色列再次发动袭击、挑起开战，不仅会让地区局势再度陷入动荡，还会让无数中东民众再次陷入流离失所的苦难之中。

在此，我们郑重提醒中东各国：特朗普访华期间，务必提高警惕、做好万全的安全防范，密切关注以色列的军事动向，坚决抵制任何可能引发冲突的挑衅行为。

同时，地区各国应加强团结协作，坚定奉行和平谈判的原则，共同维护地区的和平与稳定，不给以色列任何破坏和平的可乘之机。

和平从来不是靠妥协退让换来的，而是靠坚定的守护与共同的努力。

中东地区历经战乱磨难，难得的和平曙光值得每一个国家倍加珍惜。

希望中东各国能够认清以色列的冒险本质，携手并肩、共筑防线，守护好这来之不易的和平局面，让地区民众能够真正摆脱战争阴影，迎来安定与繁荣。

On the occasion of Trump's visit to China, Middle Eastern countries should be wary of Israel's risky actions
to undermine peace Sprouts AndyGuangzhou + Dou'er

At the invitation of President Xi Jinping, President Donald Trump of the United States of America will pay a state visit to China from May 13 to 15.

However, during this sensitive window, Middle Eastern countries must be highly vigilant against possible risky military actions by Israel -

a country that has long pursued a tough expansionist policy in the Middle East is very likely to take advantage of the diversion of the attention of the United States to provoke new conflicts and launch surprise attacks to undermine the hard-won dawn of peace in the Middle East.

Thecurrent situation in the Middle East is already at a critical stage of war and transition, after months of war, regional countries are eager to recuperate, negotiations between the United States and Iran have also shown signs of easing, and the negotiations between the two sides around the ceasefire memorandum of understanding have entered a critical stage, which brings rare hope for peace in the Middle East.

But this fragile peace situation is facing a serious threat from Israel. As a core ally of the United States in the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with his ambitious strategic calculations, has successfully tied the United States to the Middle East chariot, plunging it into a quagmire of conflict with Iran, and is in a dilemma from which "escalation cannot force the opponent to give in, and de-escalation will weaken the bargaining chip".

In fact, the U.S. Middle East strategy has long been in a structural predicament.

In recent years, the Trump administration has tried to promote "strategic contraction", hoping to divert limited strategic resources from the endless Middle East war and turn to more priority areas such as great power competition, but the continuous kidnapping of the Netanyahu government's tough stance has repeatedly frustrated the US contraction plan, and finally fell into the dilemma of "the more you want to withdraw, the more you will be bound".

Even though Netanyahu has recently declared that he wants to gradually end US military assistance to Israel and promote the two countries to shift from an "aid relationship" to a "partnership", its essence is still to further strengthen Israel's independent military capabilities and pave the way for subsequent unilateral military operations, rather than truly committing to regional peace.

What is even more alarming is that Israel's recent military developments have sent clear signals
of risk. TheIsraeli army not only continued to launch airstrikes in Lebanon, killing senior Hezbollah commanders in Lebanon, but also expanded military operations to the area north of the Litani River, and the chief of the Israeli General Staff bluntly said that 2026 may still be a year full of fighting, declaring that the Israeli army has "no restrictions on movement" in operations against Hezbollah, and even hinted that it is ready to launch a broader military strike against Iran.

Israel has clearly opposed a possible ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, believing that it would undermine its war goals, and its security agencies have conveyed their objections to the political leadership and are preparing for an escalation.

During Trump's visit to China, the focus of U.S. diplomacy will be fully focused on the bilateral agenda between China and the United States, and its attention to the Middle East will inevitably decline, which gives Israel an opportunity.

Looking back on the past, Israel has repeatedly taken advantage of the window period of international focus shift to launch raids to undermine the regional peace process, and previously raided the Hamas delegation in Qatar to spread the war to the Gulf Arab countries, and its risky actions have already brought deep disasters to the countries of the Middle East.

Nowadays, peace in the Middle East is fragile and precious, whether it is the temporary easing of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict or the positive progress of the US-Iran negotiations, it cannot withstand any external damage and impact, once Israel launches another attack and provokes war, it will not only plunge the regional situation into turmoil again, but also plunge countless Middle Eastern people into the suffering of displacement again.

Here, we solemnly remind all countries in the Middle East that during Trump's visit to China, they must be vigilant, take all security precautions, pay close attention to Israel's military movements, and resolutely resist any provocations that may trigger conflict.

At the same time, regional countries should strengthen solidarity and cooperation, firmly pursue the principle of peace negotiations, jointly maintain regional peace and stability, and do not give Israel any opportunity to undermine peace.

Peace is never won by compromise and concessions, but by firm protection and joint efforts.


The Middle East has experienced war and hardships, and the rare dawn of peace deserves to be cherished by every country.

It is hoped that all countries in the Middle East can recognize the adventurous nature of Israel, work together to build a line of defense, protect this hard-won peace, and allow the people of the region to truly get rid of the shadow of war and usher in stability and prosperity.