Villa Prices Fall By Up To 45%

Topic locked
  • Reply
Jan 12, 2009
arniegang wrote:
Anyone who is thinking of buying or has bought in RAK or Ajman needs to see a doctor.


That's right for buying sands (not built property) at least due to a big shortage of power supply there.

There are a lot of scyscrapers without power supply for months, even years in Sharjah....

Red Chief
Dubai forums GURU
User avatar
Posts: 2256

  • Reply
Jan 12, 2009
Offcourse in absolute numbers the demand for properties is higher in Dubai. I agree. Percentage-wise is another story though.
ROI are up 20 percent Year over Year and rents are up 150% a year for RAK properties, both since 2006. That significantly higher than YoY increases for Dubai.

I spooned up this article below about Property developers in Dubai buying back properties with 6 month fixed price guarantee. The one of the RAK developer that buys back at market rate slipped my memory. Will look for that link some more.

http://www.uaelists.com/uae-dubai-prope ... y-buybacks

I also read a piece about RAK needing an (old fashioned) coal fired electricity plant to keep up with the energy demand for its utilities in the future. Not exactly 'green' if you ask me, for a thriving 'state of the art' infrastructure project. Red Chief makes a good point there.

Rents in Dubai are cooling off as we speak. I don't know for sure if rates are going down yet in RAK. Property supply/availability is lower, therefore it needs less absolute demand to keep the price stable.

Keepin an eye out.

update: http://www.uaelists.com/uae-dubai-prope ... rty-market
RobbyG
UAE, Dubai Forums Lord of the posts
Posts: 5927
Location: ---

  • Reply
Jan 12, 2009
RobbyG wrote:
sage & onion wrote:
uaekid wrote:I think they should start promoting the ( the buy one get one free ) it will boost the market LOL


in AD though you cant find a single bed , prices still going crazy. ironically it is 30km or so from dubai now
!


What is 30km from Dubai?


AD.

Abu Dhabi
Anno Domini
Anti Democracy
Another Desert

Pick one. :wink:


anti democracy !! here we go again.. well its locals are pretty much happy and on top of the hall world (I'm one ) free housing free med care free universities free lands tax free GOV salaries the lowest is 20,000 so what's there to complain or vote for and we got what we need and more with out asking for it 

their doors are always open for their ppl unlike you when the closest you'll get to yours is by waving a flag when they pass by LOL.

you keep your democracy for your unemployment offices back who got tired of you and brought you here.

And I love the royal family they are such a polite humble ppl.
uaekid
Dubai Master of Thread Hijackers
User avatar
Posts: 1815

  • Reply
Jan 12, 2009
Here you go again. I did'nt mean anything with it.
It just fitted the letters A and D.

Don't go that way all the time. Some things are not meant to be.

Grow up kid.
RobbyG
UAE, Dubai Forums Lord of the posts
Posts: 5927
Location: ---

  • Reply
Jan 12, 2009
all i can say is...its all because of cursing of people.
we started sucking blood of people... pay high rent even for a small room, water tax, salik, etc. money for each and everything.
when we forget the Al mighty, this senario would be the out come. We should not forget the history. we must learn lesson from the history
gLoBalTeCh
Dubai Forums Frequenter
User avatar
Posts: 118
Location: EvERy OnE's hEArT

  • Reply
Jan 12, 2009
RobbyG wrote:Offcourse in absolute numbers the demand for properties is higher in Dubai. I agree. Percentage-wise is another story though.
ROI are up 20 percent Year over Year and rents are up 150% a year for RAK properties, both since 2006. That significantly higher than YoY increases for Dubai.

I spooned up this article below about Property developers in Dubai buying back properties with 6 month fixed price guarantee. The one of the RAK developer that buys back at market rate slipped my memory. Will look for that link some more.

http://www.uaelists.com/uae-dubai-prope ... y-buybacks

I also read a piece about RAK needing an (old fashioned) coal fired electricity plant to keep up with the energy demand for its utilities in the future. Not exactly 'green' if you ask me, for a thriving 'state of the art' infrastructure project. Red Chief makes a good point there.

Rents in Dubai are cooling off as we speak. I don't know for sure if rates are going down yet in RAK. Property supply/availability is lower, therefore it needs less absolute demand to keep the price stable.

Keepin an eye out.

update: http://www.uaelists.com/uae-dubai-prope ... rty-market


If you believe developers will buy back in 6 months at increased prices then you really do need to seek medical help.

The article you posted even explains how dubious it is and whether it is actually legal.

If you take the 3 developers from Dubai Inc being Nakheel, Emaar and DH they are struggling at the moment. Just take a look at Emaars share price - the 3 of them together are near on bankrupt. Why do you think they have sacked a total combined number of nearly 2500 staff.

If developers arn't selling properties now, do you really believe they will sell them for increased prices in 6 months !!!

Some people need to get a grip on the reality.
arniegang
UAE, Dubai Forums Lord of the posts
User avatar
Posts: 7007
Location: UK/Dubai

  • Reply
Jan 13, 2009
This is the second time you imply that I need a doctor. I don't need one, am perfectly healthy... you?

Where do you get it from, that I believe the developers will buy back properties in 6 months. I don't care if they did that and I even share the same doubt you have.

I'm just showing you the article. Informative only...
Easy dude, I got my facts reasonably figured. No doctor needed here.
RobbyG
UAE, Dubai Forums Lord of the posts
Posts: 5927
Location: ---

  • Reply
Jan 13, 2009
^ Robby, I think you make some valid points.

I took a drive by Ajman yesterday. A beautiful place with a lot of potential. Not congested (that can change), beautiful properties along the waterfront, and seems quite liberal.

IMO, the VALUE in these properties far exceed many (not all) of those in dubai.

Lets see:
Pay a ludicrous price for a condo in Dubai... only to have the view blocked in by 100 other buildings around me. (Do they even get sunshine?)
or
Buy a nice property along the waterfront in Ajman? --> I have not done my price checking so I can't comment

I think the latter is the way to go if you're looking for longetivity. If the price is right, the value will hold over time (of course it will rise/fall with economic situations).

As an aside, one good measure of true "value" of a property is reflected in how well it's price holds (depreciation %). Hence most of the villa's are in a free-fall. They will bottom out somewhere near what they are actually worth.

No Doctor's needed. I have my apple a day.
dresden
Dubai chat master
User avatar
Posts: 655

  • Reply
Jan 13, 2009
dresden wrote:^ Robby, I think you make some valid points.
I took a drive by Ajman yesterday.


Dear Dresden,
believe me It's not a place for you, at least as permanent appartment. You took a drive but I lived 4 years nearby...
You could be the only westerner in the building. The only shopping mall is far away from the water front, you could have a big enjoiment after switching off electrisity for 10 hours on summer season, even taxi drivers don't speak English at all...
The only attraction there is a famous shop near the Port's entrance...
Red Chief
Dubai forums GURU
User avatar
Posts: 2256

  • Reply
Jan 13, 2009
Red Chief wrote:
dresden wrote:^ Robby, I think you make some valid points.
I took a drive by Ajman yesterday.


Dear Dresden,
believe me It's not a place for you, at least as permanent appartment. You took a drive but I lived 4 years nearby...
You could be the only westerner in the building. The only shopping mall is far away from the water front, you could have a big enjoiment after switching off electrisity for 10 hours on summer season, even taxi drivers don't speak English at all...
The only attraction there is a famous shop near the Port's entrance...


Another good (or should I say bad) point. Nevertheless the authorities claim they have several issues with these beachfront (second) vacation homes, as this affects the economy only about a few months in a year (when occupied). The rest of the year, its emirate local community has no significant income.
So they have plans to extend the utilities and infrastructure (read something about a light rail to Dubai International airport in the future) to deliver value for the locals and expats in a way they feel more 'home'. I think this 'new' emirates are going to follow the line of Dubai, be it with less contruction bonanza.

This all does not make an investment in RAK or Ajman a bad one. I think Dubai is the leader in that perspective. In 5 years time, those little emirates will have it all (broad utilities) and don't have to rely on oil anymore. In 15 years time its all over, for oil that is...

8) Follow the vision :lol:
RobbyG
UAE, Dubai Forums Lord of the posts
Posts: 5927
Location: ---

  • Reply
Jan 13, 2009
RobbyG wrote:This all does not make an investment in RAK or Ajman a bad one. I think Dubai is the leader in that perspective. In 5 years time, those little emirates will have it all (broad utilities) and don't have to rely on oil anymore. In 15 years time its all over, for oil that is...

8) Follow the vision :lol:


There have been a little changes in the infrastructer for last 5 years. Everybody was keen in constructing building, not utility...
At my point of view gap between Dubai and SHJ, Ajman, RAK has been getting wider for last 5 years... It's the main Dubai's attraction...
Red Chief
Dubai forums GURU
User avatar
Posts: 2256

  • Reply
Jan 13, 2009
Like I said, they have plans to change that utility delay.

Closing the gap in lets say another 5 years maybe?
RobbyG
UAE, Dubai Forums Lord of the posts
Posts: 5927
Location: ---

  • Reply
Jan 13, 2009
Sorry, I was a little bit slow... It had been rather dark humour :?
Red Chief
Dubai forums GURU
User avatar
Posts: 2256

  • Reply
Jan 13, 2009
Red Chief wrote:Sorry, I was a little bit slow... It had been rather dark humour :?


Ah now i see. Misunderstood. :wink:
RobbyG
UAE, Dubai Forums Lord of the posts
Posts: 5927
Location: ---

  • Reply
Jan 13, 2009
Hi,
Just come across this site. i hear that property has dropped a great deal in value in Dubai. How much on average?
RedKite
Dubai Forums Veteran
Posts: 1102

  • Reply
Jan 13, 2009
The thread title says property's dropped 45 per cent. Is that general? Are any big projects that are now on hold or scrapped?
RedKite
Dubai Forums Veteran
Posts: 1102

  • Reply
Jan 13, 2009
RedKite wrote:The thread title says property's dropped 45 per cent. Is that general? Are any big projects that are now on hold or scrapped?


Two months ago some company offered me 1000 sq. feet 1 bed-room (Green gardens, near Ibn-Batuta) at 900K. It looks rather cheap...
Red Chief
Dubai forums GURU
User avatar
Posts: 2256

  • Reply
Jan 13, 2009
RedKite wrote:Hi,
Just come across this site. i hear that property has dropped a great deal in value in Dubai. How much on average?


Hi welcome to DF.
Property values declined approx. 8 percent in the last quarter of 2008.

http://www.propertywire.com/news/middle ... 32393.html
RobbyG
UAE, Dubai Forums Lord of the posts
Posts: 5927
Location: ---

  • Reply
Jan 13, 2009
I am surprised that very few people have an understanding of real estate in general. Not enough questions being asked about maintenance and general up keep for the building they plan to live in or buying for investment.
No questions asked of the quality of workmanship and material being used.
Let alone design quality. All those factors determine the value and future
of the investment together with location, infrastructure and accessibility.
The market will correct itself in the very near future and buyers will start looking for all those qualities before they make a move.
Even now I hear alot of complains about extraordinary high charges for upkeep and they are rising for owners of villas and apartments. The management companies in charge for the maintenance and staffing of those properties have no or little experience.
The harsh climate in the summer is not helping either.
What I am suggesting is, before I buy I would get professional expertise
in determining what is a well managed and quality building.
Having said this now the real buyer will come forward, not the speculator who only wants to flip the properties for maximum profit and no other concern. Now the market will determine the prices
not the developer or speculator.
macjul
Dubai Forums Member
Posts: 41

  • Reply
Jan 13, 2009
Good point you make. Thats the third thing I would care about when looking at property, next to the price listing and #1 locationnn.

Maintenance for off-plan speculators is not a big deal. They sell the property as soon as a nice profit opportunity comes passing by. My guess is that half of the market is controlled by investor speculators, or maybe a little less.

RERA is soon going to release a residential map that gives oversight in the property market prices by region. This will greatly enhance the oversight in rents and fees. Maintenance price indications shall be derived from this eventually, I think.
I don't know how this is settled right now, but maybe this will become uniform in time. It is illegal in UAE to form unions for all I know, but there are groups of owners that have raised voices to resist against the increasing maintenance fees. They demand more clarity and oversight into the expenditure of these building maintenance funds.

There are talks going to hand out a uniform residential visa that applies to all emirates in the UAE (excluding Sharjah??). This should deliver more investor confidence in the future. Sharjah is the only emirate where you are not able to purchase freehold property. Only leasehold. The ruler keeps the right to toss you out. Maybe that changes too with one type of residential visa...

:happy1:
RobbyG
UAE, Dubai Forums Lord of the posts
Posts: 5927
Location: ---

  • Reply
Jan 14, 2009
I am in the UK. The talk over here is that Dubai property values have dropped 40 per cent.
One thing is for sure. The UK is suffering a very bad recession. Woolworths and MFI bust. M and S closing stores. JCB laying off hundreds. Llanwern Steel Works putting men on short time. Stoke on the news , with plenty on 4 day week. Wedgwood Waterford closing factories and going down.It is horrendous!!

So if the UK and other countries are like this, who can afford very expensive homes in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. According to a web site I've seen about visiting Dubai , millions of flats , High rise etc are being built in the UAE, ready by 2010.
Who can afford them? How will families go to Dubailand on holiday , if money is short? They'll go to Spain.
You need the rest of the world to do well , to get buyers for those homes.
RedKite
Dubai Forums Veteran
Posts: 1102

  • Reply
Jan 14, 2009
40 percent... I don't believe it...yet.
By the way, if you say 40 percent decline...against what benchmark figure? Do you mean top level prices, or beginning of 2007? What exactly...

I also spotted a website Dreamhomes from the UK that implied that property values were down 45 percent or so. Nah its all marketing tricks. I don't buy that.
However there is confirmation from brokers and agents that properties are being sold below purchase value. This applied to the Bur(j) Dubai area. The Burj Tower investments were down 22 percent on average last month. Speculators bailed out with negative equity. Fear is building (no pun intended).
RobbyG
UAE, Dubai Forums Lord of the posts
Posts: 5927
Location: ---

  • Reply
Jan 14, 2009
45 % no this is too low (at least for now ),I mean any developer or real estate agent will start by reducing the prices accordingly ! 5% ..10%..15% and so on , and I don't think it is that bad ! anyone can wait for a year for his real estate to be sold , they just have to reduce their expenses for now. everyone is expecting prices to go up slowly by 2010.

and even by selling this low they'll brake even I think, bcz the opening prices were way way way too expensive but after all this is what business is all about $

but Dubai did make a mistake by authorizing building this much quantity randomly without future consideration and the verity of diff incomes to its residents..
uaekid
Dubai Master of Thread Hijackers
User avatar
Posts: 1815

  • Reply
Jan 14, 2009
RobbyG wrote:40 percent... I don't believe it...yet.
By the way, if you say 40 percent decline...against what benchmark figure? Do you mean top level prices, or beginning of 2007? What exactly...


The lowest prices are not from developers... Rich foreiners from different backwater around Dubai bought appartments a few years ago as investment or appartments for vacation. Now they have big financial problems in their own countries and so want to sale Dubai's property very quickly and rather cheap...
Red Chief
Dubai forums GURU
User avatar
Posts: 2256

  • Reply
Jan 14, 2009
I think if the truth be known, nobody knows what the hell is going on in the market.
sage & onion
Dubai Shadow Wolf
User avatar
Posts: 16338
Location: Dubai and beyond

  • Reply
villa prices fall by 45% Jan 14, 2009
RedKite is asking himself the right questions for determining the market
sentiment. He will start by analyzing who is the buyer, where is the financing coming from, and so on. He is right about the need for foreign buyers to absorb the high end luxurious properties, the local market will take some,
but definitely not the majority.
Still the biggest questions is financing. Where is the money coming from?
Having said that, its true that some villas have been offered for say AED
6 Millions down from AED 10. However, that drop in percentage may not apply for all high end or middle range properties in good locations.
Furthermore the market is too new, not established enough to make comparison to domestic and other markets with few previous sales data available.
I would venture to say if someone comes with cash, that person will be able to negotiate favorable terms unheard of 2 or 3 months ago.
macjul
Dubai Forums Member
Posts: 41

  • Reply
Jan 14, 2009
RedKite wrote:The thread title says property's dropped 45 per cent. Is that general?


On average.
Del
Dubai Expat Helper
Posts: 624

  • Reply
Re: villa prices fall by 45% Jan 14, 2009
macjul wrote:He is right about the need for foreign buyers to absorb the high end luxurious properties, the local market will take some,
but definitely not the majority.


The local market will take nothing. Westerners and another experienced rich people live hear for years paying 120K annual rent charges although freelance cost 900K 'coz they know that "sit on a powder keg"....
Red Chief
Dubai forums GURU
User avatar
Posts: 2256

  • Reply
Jan 14, 2009
uaekid wrote:and even by selling this low they'll brake even I think, bcz the opening prices were way way way too expensive but after all this is what business is all about $

but Dubai did make a mistake by authorizing building this much quantity randomly without future consideration and the verity of diff incomes to its residents..


You are not mentioning the 'house flipping' that has happened before these properties were even realised. Some properties have swiftly moved hands 5 times already.
The person who bought this 5-fold property at peak year ago, is now losing money big time. The developer together with the first and rest off-plan buyers of that property are long gone with profits.
It all depends at the moment when the actual property is bought. Thats a big difference and your break even point is long gone by now, unless your the initial buyer from off-plan Dubai 2002. Not many left I reckon.

With regards to income, the Dubai authorities are focussing on the high-end segment of foreign tourists and investors. Properties are not intended to be sold to the average Indian. You know how it goes in the UAE. Its the higher segment they focus on to become attractive long-term.

brgds
RobbyG
UAE, Dubai Forums Lord of the posts
Posts: 5927
Location: ---

  • Reply
Jan 15, 2009
The market of Dubai Villas will get stabilise as the demand grows because of the short supply.
bhomes
Dubai Forums Enthusiast
Posts: 64
Location: Dubai

posting in Dubai General ChatForum Rules

Return to Dubai General Chat