Exclusive Analysis by AndyGuangzhou | Unauthorized reproduction and translation are strictly prohibited.
When Donald Trump declared from the White House and campaign rallies—with the triumphant air of a victor—that “America has won,” “the war ended in the first hour,” and “we have effectively destroyed Iran”—the smile on his lips was built atop the ruins of bloodshed in the Middle East, the collapse of global order, and the upheaval of the world economy. This “joy” is never a dawn of peace, but an orgy of hegemonism, a catastrophe for all human civilization .
I. The Orgy of Hegemony: Trump’s “Joy” Tramples Life and Rules
Trump’s joy stems from blind faith in military force and reckless violation of other nations’ sovereignty. In 2020, he ordered a drone strike to assassinate Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force, flouting international law and state sovereignty and igniting regional turmoil. In 2026, he again joined Israel in launching sustained airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and military targets, claiming “uninterrupted strikes will last a week or longer”—turning war into a political bargaining chip and personal political achievement.
He boasted at rallies that “U.S. forces sank 58 Iranian naval vessels” and casually remarked from the White House that “the war won’t take long to end.” This cold “joy” masks countless civilian casualties, shattered families, and ruined cities across the Middle East. Following strikes on multiple Iranian cities, hospitals overflowed, infrastructure collapsed, and the humanitarian crisis spiraled. Anti-American sentiment surged across the Middle East; regional armed groups vowed retaliation, and the flames of war spread from Iran to the entire Gulf, with U.S. military bases and diplomatic missions becoming targets.
Worse still, Trump weaponizes war to blackmail allies: threatening to withdraw from NATO to coerce Europe into joining escort missions, turning regional conflict into transatlantic rifts; using “larger-scale strikes” to force Iran into humiliating agreements, seeking to completely dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities and defense systems. This logic of bullying the weak and putting oneself above all else is an outright betrayal of the UN Charter and a total tearing of the international order .
II. The Noose of Energy: The Hormuz Crisis, A Cataclysm for the Global Economy
Trump’s “joy” is tightening the noose around the global economy’s throat. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade, plus massive volumes of LNG and fertilizer—truly the “world’s energy lifeline.” As U.S.-Iran tensions erupted, Iran retaliated by threatening to block the strait and targeting oil tankers; Brent crude surged from around $70 per barrel to nearly $120, a jump of over 70%.
- A tsunami of inflation sweeps the globe
Skyrocketing oil prices directly push up global inflation. Capital Economics forecasts that oil breaking $100 will lift average global inflation by 0.6–0.7 percentage points. The already fragile global recovery is derailed; central banks are forced to delay rate cuts or even restart hikes, corporate financing costs soar, and consumer and investment confidence collapses.
- Global supply chains collapse
Tanker freight and war insurance premiums skyrocket, doubling shipping costs. Global supply chains—from energy to manufactured goods, food, and fertilizers—are paralyzed. Disrupted energy exports from the Middle East leave Europe, Asia, and other importers facing shortages; industrial production stalls, living costs surge, and poverty and hunger spread.
- The foundation of dollar hegemony shakes
The petrodollar system is the backbone of U.S. dollar dominance . With GCC nations unable to export oil, their dollar-earning capacity is cut off, and their massive holdings of U.S. Treasuries and equities face a funding crunch, exposing U.S. financial markets to systemic risk. The global de-dollarization process accelerates, plunging the international monetary order into chaos.
The World Bank and IMF have repeatedly warned that a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict will trigger “the worst oil crisis in years.” A weeks-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz would push the global economy directly into recession. Trump’s war revelry is dragging the world economy into a stagflationary abyss .
III. The Collapse of Order: From Regional Turmoil to Global Division, A Retreat of Civilization
Trump’s “joy” is the catalyst for the collapse of the global geopolitical order. This conflict, instigated by the U.S., has long transcended bilateral U.S.-Iran tensions, evolving into regional bloc confrontation and a global realignment of power:
- The Middle East descends into full-scale chaos
Rivalry intensifies between the anti-U.S. bloc (Iran, Syria, Hezbollah) and the U.S.-Israel-GCC axis. Situations in Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, and elsewhere deteriorate further; terrorist forces exploit the chaos, and regional peace processes are completely derailed.
- International alliances fragment
NATO splits openly over Iran policy; Europe refuses to foot the bill for U.S. war, deepening transatlantic rifts. The UN mechanism fails, the Security Council becomes a battlefield for great-power games, and multilateralism faces unprecedented assault .
- The nuclear non-proliferation regime unravels
U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities completely destroy the JCPOA. Iran announces it will abandon nuclear constraints and accelerate uranium enrichment. Regional nations are forced to reconsider nuclear options, sharply raising proliferation risks and bringing humanity closer to nuclear catastrophe.
- Humanitarian disaster spreads
War displaces millions of Iranian civilians; refugee surges emerge across the Gulf. Medical supplies, food, and medicine run short, with children and the elderly bearing the brunt. U.S. comprehensive sanctions combined with military strikes create one of the worst humanitarian crises in modern history.
IV. A Warning from History: The Orgy of Hegemony Ends in Civilization’s Elegy
From the assassination of Soleimani to today’s full-scale airstrikes, Trump’s war logic remains unchanged: resolve everything with force, place hegemony above rules, and trade other nations’ suffering for personal political gain. His “joy” is indifference to life, trampling of peace, and betrayal of humanity’s common interests.
History has proven time and again that order sustained by war and hegemony is a castle in the air. Decades of U.S. wars in the Middle East left only devastation and endless hatred; the U.S. itself sank into quagmires, draining its national strength and ruining its credibility. Now Trump reignites the flames, merely repeating past mistakes and dragging the U.S. and the world into deeper crisis.
Trump’s joy is the revelry of a few, a catastrophe for all humanity. As war burns in the Middle East, oil prices surge worldwide, and order trembles on the brink of collapse, we must wake up:
Hegemonism has no winners.
War only brings destruction.
Only by abandoning power politics, returning to multilateralism, and resolving disputes through dialogue and negotiation can we safeguard peace and development, and protect humanity’s shared future .
特朗普的开心，全球的灾难
当特朗普在白宫与竞选集会上，以胜利者姿态宣称“美国赢了”“战争在第一个小时就结束”“我们实际上已经摧毁了伊朗”时，他嘴角的笑意，是建立在中东生灵涂炭、全球秩序崩塌、经济秩序震荡的废墟之上。这份“开心”，从来不是和平的曙光，而是霸权主义的狂欢，是人类文明共同的灾难。
一、霸权的狂欢：特朗普的“开心”，是对生命与规则的践踏
特朗普的开心，源于对武力的迷信与对他国主权的肆意践踏。从2020年下令无人机“定点清除”伊朗圣城旅指挥官苏莱曼尼，无视国际法与国家主权，制造地区动荡 ；到2026年再度联合以色列对伊朗核设施、军事目标发动持续空袭，宣称“不间断打击将持续一周甚至更长” ，他将战争当作政治筹码与个人政绩。
他在集会上炫耀“美军击沉58艘伊朗海军舰艇”，在白宫轻描淡写“战争用不了多久结束”，这份冷漠的“开心”，背后是无数平民的伤亡、家庭的破碎、城市的废墟。伊朗多地遭袭后，医院人满为患，基础设施瘫痪，人道主义危机急剧恶化；中东多国反美情绪高涨，地区武装力量纷纷表态报复，战火从伊朗本土向整个海湾蔓延，美军基地、外交使领馆成为袭击目标 。
更令人不齿的是，他将战争当作要挟盟友的工具，以“退出北约”威胁欧洲参与护航，将地区冲突转化为跨大西洋裂痕 ；以“更大规模打击”逼迫伊朗接受屈辱协议，试图彻底摧毁伊朗核能力与国防体系 。这种以强凌弱、唯我独尊的霸权逻辑，是对《联合国宪章》的公然背叛，是对国际秩序的彻底撕裂。
二、能源的绞索：霍尔木兹危机，全球经济的灭顶之灾
特朗普的“开心”，正在勒紧全球经济的咽喉。霍尔木兹海峡承载全球约四分之一的海上石油贸易、大量液化天然气与化肥运输，是名副其实的“世界能源命脉”。美伊冲突爆发后，伊朗以封锁海峡、袭击油轮作为反制，布伦特原油价格从约70美元/桶一度飙升至逼近120美元/桶，涨幅超70%。
- 通胀海啸席卷全球：油价暴涨直接推高全球通胀，凯投宏观预测，油价破百将使全球平均通胀上升0.6-0.7个百分点 。本就脆弱的全球经济复苏被打断，各国央行被迫推迟降息甚至重启加息，企业融资成本飙升，消费与投资信心崩塌。
- 供应链全面崩溃：油轮运费、战争保险费暴涨，海运成本翻倍，全球供应链从能源到工业制成品、粮食化肥全线受阻。中东能源出口中断，欧洲、亚洲等能源进口国面临供应短缺，工业生产停滞，民生成本飙升，贫困与饥饿人口激增。
- 美元霸权根基动摇：石油美元体系是美元霸权的核心支柱，海合会国家石油无法出口，赚取美元能力被切断，其对美债、美股的巨额投资面临断流，美国金融市场遭遇系统性风险。全球去美元化进程加速，国际货币秩序陷入混乱。
世界银行、IMF多次警告，美伊冲突长期化将引发“多年来最大石油危机”，霍尔木兹海峡若关闭数周，全球经济将直接陷入衰退 。特朗普的战争狂欢，正在将全球经济拖入滞胀深渊。
三、秩序的崩塌：从地区动荡到全球撕裂，文明的倒退
特朗普的“开心”，是全球地缘政治秩序崩塌的催化剂。这场由美国挑起的冲突，早已超越美伊双边范畴，演变为地区阵营对抗与全球力量重组：
- 中东陷入全面混战：伊朗、叙利亚、黎巴嫩真主党等反美阵营与美以、海合会国家对立加剧，也门、伊拉克、黎巴嫩等国局势进一步恶化，恐怖主义势力趁虚而入，地区和平进程彻底中断 。
- 国际联盟分崩离析：北约内部因对伊政策分歧公开决裂，欧洲拒绝为美国战争买单，美欧裂痕难以弥合；联合国机制失灵，安理会沦为大国博弈场，多边主义遭遇前所未有的冲击 。
- 核不扩散体系瓦解：美国对伊朗核设施的军事打击，彻底摧毁伊核协议成果，伊朗宣布放弃核限制，加速铀浓缩进程 。地区多国被迫重新考虑核选项，核扩散风险急剧上升，人类距离核灾难更近一步。
- 人道主义灾难蔓延：战火导致数百万伊朗平民流离失所，海湾地区难民潮涌现，医疗、粮食、药品短缺，儿童、老人成为最大受害者。美国对伊朗的全面制裁与军事打击叠加，制造了现代史上罕见的人道主义危机 。
四、历史的警钟：霸权的狂欢，终是文明的悲歌
从苏莱曼尼遇袭到如今的全面空袭，特朗普的战争逻辑从未改变：以武力解决一切，以霸权凌驾规则，以他国灾难换取个人政治资本。他的“开心”，是对生命的漠视，对和平的践踏，对人类共同利益的背叛。
历史早已证明，依靠战争与霸权维系的秩序，终究是空中楼阁。美国在中东数十年的战争，留下的是满目疮痍与无尽仇恨，自身也深陷战争泥潭，国力消耗、信誉扫地。如今特朗普再度点燃战火，不过是重蹈覆辙，将美国与全球拖入更深的危机。
特朗普的开心，是少数人的狂欢，是全人类的灾难。当战火在中东燃烧，当油价在全球飙升，当秩序在崩塌中颤抖，我们必须清醒：霸权主义没有赢家，战争只会带来毁灭。唯有摒弃强权思维，回归多边主义，以对话协商解决争端，才能守护和平与发展，守护人类共同的未来。