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The Middle East’s Choice Under Nuclear Blackmail: Safeguarding Security and Rationality to Prevent Nuclear Catastrophe

——Special Article for Dubai Forum

The Middle East is currently at a critical tipping point of nuclear risk. According to Xinhua News Agency, Dmitry Peskov, Press Secretary of the President of Russia, issued a clear security warning to the United States on March 23 regarding the situation around Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant: attacks on nuclear facilities pose potentially extreme dangers and will lead to irreversible consequences. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed that projectiles struck near the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, pushing regional military conflicts dangerously close to the red line of civilian nuclear safety.

The Middle East must make a clear choice between nuclear blackmail and security rationality:
Rejecting military adventurism, upholding nuclear non-proliferation, and returning to multilateral dialogue represent the only path to lasting security and stability in the Middle East.

I. Attacks on Nuclear Facilities: From Geopolitical Games to Uncontrollable Disaster

The Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant is a peaceful nuclear facility under full supervision of the United Nations and the IAEA, serving Iran’s civilian energy needs and people’s livelihood. In recent Middle East conflicts, nuclear facilities have repeatedly become targets of military strikes, blatantly crossing the bottom line of modern warfare and international humanitarian law.

Russia’s warning is not mere diplomatic rhetoric, but a scientific judgment on the consequences of nuclear catastrophe:
Should the nuclear reactor be damaged, radioactive contamination would spread across the Persian Gulf, threatening the ecology, water sources, and public health of all coastal countries, and triggering a chain shock to global energy supply chains and markets.

The essence of nuclear blackmail is to weaponize civilian nuclear safety as a bargaining chip in geopolitical competition, seeking unilateral advantages through maximum pressure. This logic defies the purposes of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), violates the right to life and development of regional countries, and drags the entire Middle East into a highly volatile nuclear risk vortex.

When military options override nuclear safety, the Middle East is no longer a chessboard for major-power rivalry, but a high-risk zone for nuclear disaster facing all humanity.

II. The Quagmire of Nuclear Blackmail: Three Fractures in the Middle East’s Security Order

Nuclear blackmail is tearing apart the foundation of security in the Middle East.

First, the collapse of security trust:
The right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy has been politicized, and the legitimate development aspirations of non-nuclear countries have been labeled as “threats”, forcing Middle Eastern states to choose between extreme alignment and confrontation.

Second, the failure of the non-proliferation system:
Double standards prevail, military strikes replace diplomatic solutions, pushing more countries to pursue nuclear capabilities for self-preservation and sharply raising the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

Third, livelihoods and development sacrificed to confrontation:
Investment in energy, trade, infrastructure, and people’s well-being is crowded out by arms races, as resources for peaceful development are wasted in zero-sum games.

As a regional hub and dialogue platform, Dubai must see clearly:
There are no winners in nuclear blackmail.

Neither the aggressors, the targeted countries, nor the Gulf coastal states can insulate themselves from nuclear contamination and regional chaos.

The “short-term victory” of military solutions will ultimately be paid for with long-term turmoil and irreversible environmental damage.

III. The Rational Choice for the Middle East: From Nuclear Fear to Common Security

Faced with nuclear blackmail, the way out for the Middle East lies not in tit-for-tat violence, but in common security, collective rationality, and multilateral mechanisms.

First, an immediate ceasefire to strictly observe the red line of nuclear safety.
The international community should urge all parties to halt all military actions targeting civilian nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure, and civilian targets, respect the supervisory authority of the IAEA, and completely remove nuclear risks from conflicts. The security warnings from Russia and other countries must be translated into rules observed by all parties.

Second, rejecting nuclear blackmail and defending the right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy.
Countries in the Middle East have the right to develop civilian nuclear energy within the non-proliferation framework. They oppose unilateral sanctions and military adventurism under the pretext of “nuclear threats”, as well as double standards in nuclear non-proliferation.

What the Middle East needs is technological cooperation and security guarantees, not siege by sanctions and military deterrence.

Third, returning to multilateral negotiations to rebuild the regional security architecture.
Based on the Iran Nuclear Deal, inclusive dialogue should resume to accommodate Iran’s security concerns, Israel’s legitimate security needs, and the stability aspirations of Gulf states. Efforts should be made to establish a zone free of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East, grounding regional security on international law and multilateral mechanisms rather than unilateral hegemony and nuclear blackmail.

Fourth, leveraging Dubai’s platform to offset confrontation with economic and trade cooperation.
Strengthen bonds through energy cooperation, connectivity, and people-to-people exchanges, resolve security dilemmas through common development, and transform the Middle East from a “flashpoint of conflict” into a “highland of cooperation”.

Conclusion

The alarm at the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant serves as a stark reminder to the entire Middle East:
There are no winners in nuclear conflict;
Only peace holds the future.

Nuclear blackmail only brings destruction;
Security and rationality alone can safeguard homelands.

In the consensus of the Dubai Forum, the Middle East must firmly choose: reject military adventurism, uphold nuclear non-proliferation, embrace multilateral dialogue, defend against nuclear risks through common security, and deliver lasting peace to all peoples.

This is not only the choice of the Middle East, but also the shared answer of human civilization in the face of nuclear threats.

 

Copyright Notice

This article is a special contribution to the Dubai Forum, authored by AndyGuangzhou. Copyright is jointly owned by the author and the Forum Organizing Committee. Unauthorized reproduction, copying, alteration, or commercial use by any media, organization, or individual is prohibited. Violators will be held legally responsible.

核讹诈下中东的选择：以安全理性，拒止核灾难

——迪拜论坛专题文章

当前中东正站在核风险的临界点。据新华社消息，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫3月23日就伊朗布什尔核电站周边局势向美方发出明确安全警告：对核设施的袭击具有潜在极端危险性，将造成无法挽回的后果。国际原子能机构同步确认，布什尔核电站遭投射物近距离击中，地区军事冲突已逼近民用核安全红线。中东必须在核讹诈与安全理性之间作出清醒选择：

拒绝军事冒险、坚守核不扩散、回归多边对话，才是中东地区长治久安的唯一出路。

一、核设施遇袭：从地缘博弈滑向不可控灾难

布什尔核电站是受联合国与国际原子能机构全程监管的和平核设施，承担伊朗民用能源与民生保障功能。近期中东冲突中，核设施接连成为军事打击目标，彻底突破现代战争与国际人道法底线。

俄罗斯的警告并非外交辞令，而是基于核灾难的科学判断：

一旦核反应堆受损，放射性污染将沿波斯湾扩散，危及沿岸多国生态、水源与公共卫生，能源供应链与全球市场将遭遇连锁冲击。

核讹诈的本质，是把民用核安全当作地缘博弈筹码，以“极限施压”换取单方优势。这种逻辑无视《不扩散核武器条约》宗旨，无视地区国家生存权与发展权，更把整个中东拖入“一触即溃”的核风险漩涡。

当军事选项凌驾于核安全之上，中东不再是大国博弈的棋盘，而是全人类共同面对的核灾高危区。

二、核讹诈困局：中东安全秩序的三重撕裂

核讹诈正在撕裂中东的安全根基。

其一，安全信任崩塌：
和平利用核能的权利被政治化，无核国家的合理发展诉求被标签化为“威胁”，中东地区国家被迫在依附与对抗之间极端选择。

其二，防扩散体系失效：
双重标准盛行，军事打击替代外交解决，倒逼更多国家寻求自保性核能力，中东地区核扩散风险急剧抬升。

其三，民生与发展让位于对抗：
能源、贸易、基建与民生投入被军备竞赛挤占，本可用于和平发展的资源消耗在零和博弈中。

迪拜作为地区枢纽与对话平台，更应该清晰看到：

核讹诈没有赢家。

无论打击方、被打击方，还是海湾沿岸各国，都无法在核污染与地区失序中独善其身。

军事解决的“短期胜利”，终将以长期动荡与不可逆的环境代价偿还。

三、中东的理性选择：从核恐惧走向共同安全

面对核讹诈，中东的出路不在于以暴制暴，而在于共同安全、集体理性、多边机制。

第一，立即停火止战，严守核安全红线。

国际社会应敦促各方停止针对民用核设施、能源设施与民生目标的一切军事行动，尊重国际原子能机构监管权威，把核风险彻底排除在冲突之外。俄罗斯等国的安全警告，应转化为各方共同遵守的行动准则。

第二，拒绝核讹诈，捍卫和平利用核能权利。

中东地区国家有权在不扩散框架下发展民用核能，反对以“核威胁”为借口实施单边制裁与军事冒险，反对在防扩散问题上搞双重标准。

中东需要的是技术合作与安全保障，而非制裁包围与军事威慑。

第三，回归多边谈判，重建中东地区安全架构。

以伊核协议为基础，重启包容性对话，兼顾伊朗安全关切、以色列合理安全需求与海湾国家稳定诉求。推动建立中东无核武器及大规模杀伤性武器区，把中东地区安全建立在国际法与多边机制之上，而非单边强权与核讹诈。

第四，发挥迪拜平台作用，以经贸合作对冲对抗。

以能源合作、互联互通、人文交流拉紧利益纽带，用共同发展消解安全困境，让中东从“冲突高地”变回“合作高地”。

结语

布什尔核电站的警报，是对整个中东的清醒提醒：

核没有赢家，
和平才有未来。
核讹诈只会带来毁灭，
安全理性才能守护家园。

在迪拜论坛的共识里，中东应坚定选择：拒止军事冒险、坚守核不扩散、拥抱多边对话，以共同安全抵御核风险，以持久和平惠及全体人民。

这不仅是中东的选择，更是人类文明面对核威胁时的共同答案。

 

版权声明
本文为迪拜论坛专稿，作者 AndyGuangzhou，版权归作者及论坛组委会共同所有。未经授权，禁止任何媒体、机构或个人转载、复制、篡改及用于商业传播，违者将依法追究责任。