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OK HONESTLY IS IT PICKING UP ( in Dubai )


mayoush If you say yes, also include what field of work ur in. Thanks This will help us all out!
Ballbraker
YES.
I'm in the propaganda business :P mayoush If you live in Dubai, who isn't! Thanks for your blithe reply. This is a serious thread. Many people that left are still in this forum and still checking to see how the city they had to leave is progressing. Perhaps, to reclaim their old job. smoggie I work in Advertising and I would say no. Speedhump Not this year I think. But India and China still strong, and USA spinning a story that it's all rosy there now (believe it if you like), so maybe next year Dubai may get some of the benefit? Forget any return to the stupid stupid construction and real estate boom again. Those jobs won't be coming back in large numbers in a hurry. Also shop workers must be crying well into next year. How many new malls have been built that we don't need....? Real businesses like banking, insurance, aviation, shipping, cross fingers they start to lift again early next year. Keep watching those world trade figures for signs. Just my two fils. Probably crap..... desertdudeshj who is US in the help us out bit ? Speedhump US, I guess? :D xty still burried under ground. can't find job since 6 months ago. mid level IT operations/consulting services (specifically for retail/supply chain/logistics). in fact IT jobs in general are very very less. Misery Called Life *Bump* It's a relevant thread people. Plz post in ur thoughts. Much appreciated! Speedhump Bah!! You had mine, small as they are, where are yours? :P :D

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Misery Called Life Cumon I'm only a student, so I study what wat everyone else has to say! :D Speedhump LOL, your new military title is Major Cop Out !! :P :) Misery Called Life
Damn, I was'nt familiar with the term cop out so I presumed ur statement to be a compliment :P
Looked up Cop Out:-
1. An excuse for inaction or evasion.
:lol:
But honestly regarding the economy I ain't got a clue. I see conflicting reports all round. Then again I've known people fired, promoted and hired. Maybe a forum like this with 1000's of registerd members could generate a real time sample which would definately help me come to a conclusion. Speedhump I don't think anybody has a clue right now mate. Look for shop prices to start to rise then you will know it's really turning. That's where the world will start to turn again, when ordinary people are able to and start to spend more money. Stimulus packages are just behind the scenes CPR attempts. You can produce all the steel you want but until people start to buy washing machines again it goes nowhere. uaekid there is an upside to it in Dubai , the hotel prices went down around 50%, but not all. I use to rent a 3 bedroom apartment in the marina area for 2500 per night ( Tamani hotel ) then it went down to 900 before ramadan… now up 1700 but other similar apartment hotels near the emirates mall rents you the 3 bedroom apartment for dh 850, now that is cheap. uaekid but it was hard finding a room last week at least, they were sold out mostly the jumirah hotels RedKite I was in my local rugby club in Wales on Friday night. I was in conversation with 2 guys in their 50s and 60s. I had never met the one in his 50s before. His name was Tony and he had moved to our area from away . After a while , one of the others mentioned Dubai. I said they were in financial trouble out there and property had dropped nearly 50 per cent in value!! I then said "They're running out of money, and a lot of building projects are on stop,including "The World"! Suddenly , Tony said " You're talking bullsh*t !!" "Everything will be finished in 2 years....including"The World" !! I said........"No it won't !! Abu Dhabi has got the big money , and all the oil and gas, not Dubai !!" This bloke kept arguing , until he went out for a cigarette !! That's what my father called PUB TALK !! Some people have NO IDEA of the EXTENT at which money has been borrowed in Dubai......FOR MEGA PROJECT AFTER MEGA PROJECT !! Guys like Tony have no idea how OVERDONE the building mania was in Dubai , with hugely expensive land reclaimed from the sea !! Abu Dhabi has applied far more caution and commonsense ! arniegang Everyone knows Abu Dhabi has zillions and quintillions more dollars than Dubai, and in any case they never wanted to copy Dubai in the first place, so i dont get your point. coachroebuck
I'm in the Retail Industry as a Mid-Level IT Specialist. Things are not getting better over here. The media is not telling the truth. The real unemployment rate is well over 15%, and climbing. I believe the world will recover, but America is a sinking ship. I'm more frightened over the growing social tensions political climate than the economy, because the public isn't waking up fast enough.
Misery Called Life
Just wanted to pint something out, if you think the US of A is spinning yarns, I don't think this is the best place for you :lol:
I did'nt quite catch th ejist of your post, so you say the US is a sinking ship? Why?
And what are you implying when you say the public is'nt waking up fast? What do you expect?
I partially agree with your stand on India and China, although I would appreciates it if you could state the logic behind it. Red Chief US reminds me SU in the end of 70s with its stagnation. Misery Called Life
I disagree. The next boom is on the horizon. The question is how fast can the US government clear off it's toxic debt. Offcourse the war is not helping either. shafique
Ahh - it is touching to see such faith outside of the religion forum! ;)
But you raise an interesting point - the US has a load of debts. These are all denominated in dollars. So to pay off this debt, it has to pay the debtors dollars.
Where do dollars come from? Well, given they are not backed by anything (not since the gold standard was removed), then every dollar is simply produced by the US government when needed.
So - why doesn't the US just pay off all its debts tomorrow by printing all the money it owes (or just transferring it electronically to the debtors' bank accounts?)
Makes you think?
Cheers,
Shafique viking-warrior Oh come on Shaf - you are way too intelligent to post kak like that ... A first year O level Economics student could tell you that the value of a currency is a function of the money in circulation (M0, M1, M2, M3 etc.) and the volume of goods produced, imported, exported or consumed locally, of the country in question. The notion of a "Fort Knox" or "Bank of England" gold standard is bonkers in this day and age (unless of course you are stashing Gold under your bed) because if the world was to return to a gold standard the price of gold would probably go to $1 Million an ounce to satisfy the central banks requirements. With real money flowing out of national economies to buy gold what happens to countries like Bangladesh - Spain - the whole of Africa, - yup economic disaster ! The standard that backs countries is the "trade" standard - the ability to consume and to service that consumption by paying, within a certain time period. (Ooh some now see where this is going .............) Just like Portsmouth FC :) Like mom used to say "Eyes bigger than his tummy" :lol: Red Chief
Tell me what is goint to be the engine of this boom. Traditional industry, like GM, Ford, Chrysler, is totally distroid. Technological progress was over in the end of 90s and was replaced on "innovationes" and so new economy landed very soon after that. That's why we saw bubles in the real estate recently because people considered real estate as the only possible investment.
We cannot see something new nowadays like PC, cell phones and Internet in the past. The only thing we see is pumping economy by papers to encorage consumption. shafique There I was thinking that the value of money was what someone else was willing to give you in exchange for it! ;) As for the value of currency - I think Soros will argue that today it's only worth what the market thinks it's worth. I wasn't advocating a return to the gold standard, just making a reference to the fact that the US treasury can print as much money as they like - there is no limit to their powers to create money. The problem with not having a gold standard is that there isn't an objective measure of what currency worth anymore - it's simply worth what the 'market' says its worth. Hence my simple point about the US debt - it is denominated in dollars and the US Gov could theoretically pay it all off tomorrow. However, if it did so by printing money, the world will have to face up that the dollar is actually worth a lot less than it currently can buy. I could couch this in macro-economic terms, but the principle is really as simple as above. I've held my views about the precariousness of US economic power for a long while now (and posted about it here) - and actually shared the views of economists such as Roubini who were ridiculed when they predicted that a crash was coming.. but that's a different discussion. Cheers, Shafique shafique
I agree with your logic. My view of the economic decline of the US was crystalised by two events - one was actually visiting the US over a period of years and noticing how visibly crumbling the infrastructure was (and the growing gulf between the haves and have-nots) and (bizarely) watching the film 'Crouching tiger, hidden dragon' (or something similar).
I thought in the latter - well, I guess now the Chinese are even as adept as the US at the creative side of things - so given theyv'e already cornered manufacturing and are making big advances in research and development, what's going to stop China making more progress than Japan (for example) made from the 1950s onwards?
I haven't yet heard a convincing argument in favour of the belief that the US will bounce back - the best I've heard is that 'they've done so in the past, so it should happen in future'. The underlying drivers in the past seems to be a thing of the past though. ( I similary didn't hear any convincing arguments why Dubai's property market would not crash! :) )
Then again, Britain was in denial for a long time when the Empire was in decline, and so was Rome, Greece, Persian and yes the Islamic empire(s) as well... ;)
Cheers,
Shafique viking-warrior Now you are using verbal structure to appear to disagree when in actual fact you do agree ! Refreshingly adept after having attempted to debate "the Kid" The funds available, the demand for goods and the ability to pay equates directly to the value of money being what someone is prepared to give you in return for it, as I assume you well know :) But simply increasing the supply of money would devalue the currency itself in that the demand and the payment cycle stay the same. (closed form solution - if one bit goes up then the other bit must come down to maintain equilibrium ...) I do not disagree about the appaling state of the US, its finances and politics and have been an advocate of a double dip recession for some time, and even if it is not a true W then its gonna be a crawl up. I would hope, that we can agree on the fact that the west has long since relinquished its hold on manufacturing, which is a major component of economic growth and health, but equally that the east has yet to take the reins of control over the businesses that run, develop and innovate these business ergo the balance of power (and control of the balance sheet) still resides in the west. As for the value of money according to the mighty Soros, the worlds economic system is a zero sum game that appreciates or depreciates within the boundaries of growth or recession. Soros wins someone else loses and vis versa, his trick is to play in such size as to amplify trends and advantage his bank balance but at the end of the day it has little or no effect in the bigger picture. :wink: viking-warrior p.s. I think Britian is no longer in denial, its in de sh1t :lol: shafique Viking - Agree about Britain not being in denial any more! Was back there in March with the family and had a few interviews, and all unanimously agreed that we'd prefer to be in Mauritius and jobless, rather than in the UK and with a reasonably paid job. It's a bit dire (and we have a house in a leafy suburb of Surrey!). As for monetary theory etc - happy to engage in some meaningful discussion after the 'education of eh-oh' conversations taking place in religion and politics threads. ;) I disagree about the zero-sum game though - the money that has vanished from the stock markets just wasn't there to begin with. All those trillions that have been pumped in by tax-payers aren't now sitting in some very happy speculator's pocket - it's just been created out of thin air to replace a drops in asset values. Have you seen the 2006 'film' 'Money as Debt' - its widely available on YouTube etc (and on torrents) - I find it does the job of explaining to laypeople what fractional reserve banking and the implications of interest actually are - it's actually enlightened some professional colleagues of mine who should have known better. Back to topic though - I'm going to be passing through Dubai on Sun morning, I'll be coming out just to visit the bank and withdraw my residual savings before flying out again a few hours later. It will be interesting to see whether changes since April are visible (well, at least the Metro is now running - so that's one change). Cheers, Shafique arniegang
ok hands up time
I often wondered the same myself, why the BOE does not print more £'s. so i am backing Shaf, but thanks for the answer VK.
Actually - NO
I dont get it. Why, cant a central bank just slip a few billion into its coffers, then put that money either back into circulation or just pay off a debt, who gonna know anyway if its kept shhhhhhhhhhh. coachroebuck Shafique pretty much clarified my concerns. There's not too much more for me to add, except that printing more money can lead to a serious inflation. History has shown this a few times during the last century. Thanks Shafique. A lady who currently lives in Dubai informed me during the spring that 9/11 2001 wrecked Dubai pretty good. Apart from that and the heavily ambitious construction that has been occurring, I don't know too much about the area. That led me to join this forum. I can't be too ignorant. shafique The issue is really that the whole banking system is now largely based on confidence - it is not actually based on 'actual' money circulating. It's a hard concept for laypeople to comprehend, let alone accept. It's all an illusion - but one that has its own terminology and logic. Fractional reserve banking is at its core - the creation of 'money' by banks who only have to hold 1/10 (roughly) of 'money' they lend out. In effect they create money out of nothing - and this is largely out of the control of governments. The system relies on people/institutions 'believing' the money has value and treating it as such. Once there is doubt in the worth of the money, we have serious (even catastrophic) consequences such as the currency crises in the Far East and Russia not so long ago. A similar set of circumstances (beliefs) led to the financial crises seen recently in the 'west' - a 'the emperor is naked' moment in effect. What the trillions of public money given to the banks exposed is the fact that the 'money' that disappeared was never there to begin with - it was conjured up out of thin air. No tangible 'thing' was manufactured that had value or increased in value, but the financial system fooled itself that it was creating loads of value. In effect it was a big Ponzi scheme (the system as a whole) which makes Madoff's theft pale into comparison - just look at the Trillions that the tax payers have had to pump into the banking systems just to stop it collapsing. Just look back at what the politicians/bankers were trying to do - the key words are 'restore' and 'confidence'. People had to go back to believing that money that didn't exist could be used to buy things or as a store of wealth. Then banks could start giving this out again. Then it comes to the Dollar - here logic seems to have gone out the window as well. The world is seemingly ok with accepting paper money printed by the worlds greatest debtor who can at any time just print out new notes to pay off the debt. Of course, if the world thinks it will print money, then the money they hold in their coffers suddenly becomes devalued, but the US's debt 'vanishes' or 'reduces'. The world thought it couldn't happen to Russia (defaulting on its debts) - but it did, caused a lot of short term pain for Russians holding Roubles - but it set the stage for Russia's re-emergence as an economic superpower. Now those who lost money lending to Russia are the ones looking silly. So, I still await the convincing argument that the Dollar won't go the way of other debtor currencies of the past - the Pound, the Rouble etc. But hey - that's just me - if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck - it's a duck! ;) Cheers, Shafique shafique
Arnie - you are closer to the truth/reality than you may realise. For some years now, the UK Government has not published what the 'wider' measure of money in the UK economy is - and made it less transparent for people to know what 'money' is actually out there.
Where they recently nationalised banks, the money used didn't come from a fixed pile of dosh sitting in the BoE, they just created the money and said this was now available on the balance sheets of the banks they were buying.
I'm simplifying a lot - but in effect this is what happened. There is a reckoning, of course, that takes the form of the national accounts which tally up our 'national debt' - but the value of the currency is now in the hands of international speculators who decide whether they believe in the UK economy or not, and the pound's value moves accordingly.
If the currency value did move in relation to fundamentals about prospects for UK inc - then the pounds value would move smoothly up or down. Or similarly, if 'monetarist' theory is correct (as argued by VK), then the pound's value will increase/decrease when the UK gov prints more money or buys up bonds/gilts etc. The problem now is that the government only controls a fraction of the money supply, and that the pound's value is really at the mercy of the 'market'.
The 'market' was supposed to know what it is doing. This fallacy was also exposed a year ago - when governments had to step in to bail it out, precisely because the market had failed.
Cheers,
Shafique benwj Things are surely looking up if df is anything to go by. Shafique is revealing his interest in money (and considerable knowledge I might add... are you sure that you are not Jewish Shafique:)). Arnie, the prodigal son, has returned from financial crisis exile with renewed vigor (and humor). Bora Bora
Financial crisis exile??? Sounds a bit dubious. Misery Called Life I don't quite comprehend ur analogy Shaf Are you advocating socialism here? C'mon we all know what wrong, thanks for Econ 101 lecture, but whadya propose is done about it? The last great depression took place in essence because of the gold standard, wherein the dollar was pegged, velocity of money was at an all time high and the government could not inject money into the system. This time round through the bailouts which you so lambast, the government may have have infact averted a great depression. So what exactly is the value of the Dollar? This is wheer I'm kinda blank... Economics would suggest that there needs to be enough dollars in circulation to enable GDP to grow at a constant rate. Essentially the root of the problem was that America was consuming more whilst producing less...(Cheap Credit) A turnaround would entail that Industrial output and the services needs to go up a few notches. Yet to nullify the deficit USA would have to increase it's exports by 70% according to Morgan Stanley. Well that's not happening. But I hear America might subsidize university education for Americans? That would definately create skilled manpower. So what works for America? A major financer of America's trade deficit were central banks from around the world, including China. The advocates of China-bashing, are well aware of the growing dependence of American financial markets on the flow of funds from the Chinese central bank. But they believe that the Chinese authorities have nowhere else to place their money and that the recessionary consequences of any significant withdrawal of funds would rebound on the Chinese economy. In other words, they consider that what former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers once called the “balance of financial terror” will operate in favour of the US. Imagine what the dollar would do if global currency traders glanced at CNBC one morning and saw the American president, surrounded key congressional leaders, standing in front of a podium at the White House—and then heard the nation's CEO says the following: "A strong dollar has long been a symbol of America's economic strength and vitality. So shall it be again. To that end, the White House and Congress have agreed to the following: first, a plan to make Social Security forever solvent without massive tax increases; second, the elimination of investment taxes for middle-class folks and a 50 percent cut for wealthier Americans; third, a limit in the growth of nondefense spending to the prevailing inflation rate minus 1 percent; fourth, a ban on all earmarks; fifth, a cut in the corporate tax rate to 25 percent; sixth, the creation of government-funded innovation prizes to help meet our nation's grand scientific challenges; seventh, linking federal higher education funding to schools' ability to produce many more skilled scientists and engineers. Hey world, check us out!" I don't think I would want to be short the dollar that day The current account may have problem Shaf, but the US capital account is still strong. People are still investing in the US. Misery Called Life FInally, What is the long-term future of the dollar as the preferred reserve and trading currency? The risks of a speculative crisis are never zero in any market that depends so much on expectations. But the situation is not quite what it was when Soros mounted his famous 1992 raid on the pound. The dollar is more widely held and the resources available to fight off a bear run are substantial. In any case, the real problem for the dollar is whether market factors and policy responses will allow it to depreciate as much as US authorities would want. As for the yuan, speculators would dearly love to mount a bull run on it, but cannot, because it is far from being a freely traded, widely-held currency. Oh and a quip update for this year alone Chines bank lending was almost equal to 25% of it GDP. I don't think they are in any position to play around with their interest rates. Although I do admit it may be difficult to secure a soft landing with exchange rates realigned and macro policies readjusted so that growth momentum is maintained in the US, reduced in China, and enhanced in Europe and Japan. But do take some time out to read this kicka$$ article olivertwisted is it just me or are there other engineers out there who cant make head or tail out of this shite!! Am I glad i joined the science stream. ignorance really is bliss m3dvezhonok ok



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