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House prices...


onetickin Maybe it will go up, maybe it will come crashing down. All I know is that back in Dec2005 people were telling me not to buy (which may have included Arnie - I can't remember so if this is incorrect, please accept my apologises). Had I listened I wouldn't be have gained approx 50% plus unreliased P&L.
MaaaD does anyone know the average for sq m in singapore? arniegang
I was in the buy camp then mate, but i started to change my opinion mid 2006 and i'm sticking to it now until further notice, I started to see the warning signs early 2006 though. However my prediction for "late 2007" was spot on 2 years ago :D. You will also note my prediction for people back then buying off plan in 2006 completing in 2009 are equally at risk.
in fact i wrote this on 6th January 2006

Interestingly enough Chocs who is saying in this thread "buy buy buy Sports City blah blah" was most vocal back then in saying we were all fools buying property. Read for yourself here:
&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=15 dubaidog I'm with ya arnie! arniegang an interesting fact in Gulf News on their properties section. Listed are 10,052 properties for sale or rent in Dubai 10,000 !!!!! obviously there is a very long queue to buy or rent all these properties :lol: ^ian^ Arnie stop talking. Nobody wants to read over and over again how lucky you were. arniegang
on the contrary Ian, luck had nothing to do with it, as i have been saying all along :wink: gezza Dubai promenade is 2.8 million for a one bed...off plan! This is getting ridiculous. :shock: craigindubai Patience..... With the exception of very unique properties, housing prices are set for a fall within the next couple of years. Demand is currently oustripping supply by a fair margin. Hence the ridiculous rental prices. However, the underlying factor is that the actual housing prices are NOT reflective of the current rental incomes. i.e. The current yield in Dubai is >10% for investment properties. In every other property market in the world you'd be happy with 3%. Why is this so? Because institutional and large private investors realise that the rental market is grossly inflated at the moment and these type of returns will not continue. They also know that within the next 4-5yrs, the accommodation capacity of Dubai will more than double and reverse the current trend of inflated rentals and increasing property prices. They won't nessesacrily go backwards a great deal, but they will plateau and lose ground on inflation therefore making the cost of housing cheaper than it is now (In relative terms). Whilst it's NEVER a bad time to buy property for the long term, there are much more attractive times to buy if you are looking for growth in the short and medium term. Alex1111 Most independant reports are suggesting property prices will increase for the next 2-5years.Supply is way behind demand due to late completion times.Dubai property and rental prices are still behind other major cities. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other reasons to invest in Dubai :STOCK MARKETS: Following stock market crashes in the past investors have looked to property to put their money in.Dubai is one country that would benefit from the current state of the markets. IMPROVED FINANCING:With the passing of time Dubai banks will offer more choice,better packages,and better rates for borrowing money.This will create more potential buyers. ESCROW ACCOUNT:This will cut down the amount of properties being built and reduce chances of oversupply.It will also bring more buyers into the market especially overseas who will feel more confident to invest. INCREASED CONSTRUCTION COSTS:With material prices soaring and labour shortages new projects will start off at a higher and higher price bringing up with it the prices of started or completed projects.TOURISTS:Some of the properties in dubai will be used for holiday lets and not for residents meaning less available properties for them and so less chance of oversupply.

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MAC you pay 2.8M dirham for 1 bedroom apt in dubai = you stupid! you can buy same in paris, london or NYC or 3 towns in pakistan. Dubai Knight Simple answer: DON'T BUY IN DUBAI! They have been talking about a slump in the property price since camels walked down the Sheikh Zayed Road. They can't afford for them to drop as all the investment in construction has been done on financed deals and it would ruin the people trying to service the loans with money they don't really have, the all important outside investors from the other GCC countries and the businesses they own...which is everything. It will be artificially pumped up for long enough for the big players to have received their returns...then they won't care what happens. :shock: :shock: :shock: Knight Dr.D DK, you speak as if Dubai is the only place in the world this happens. arniegang If this were true then why is Damac offering Bentleys and BMW' as an incentive to buy?? If this were true then why are JBR's prices dropping. I agree now is not the time to buy. Once the scheduled completions come on stream for 2008 and 2009 the market will fall quickly. Those "investors" who have paid current/2006/7 prices will be desperate to sell their "empty" properties. Just drive around the Marina and look at the completions then look at how many lights are on at night. Compare the thickness of the propery section in KT and Gulf News now compared to 2 years ago, resales are not selling. Last month i negotiated a purchase on a 2 bed at a tower nr the Oasis down to the original selling price of 2006 They are not selling period. The prices advertised are totally unrealistic and do not represent what resales are actually achieving. Chocoholic There is no indication of there being a slump in prices anytime soon. It all depends where you buy, where it is from the master developer and what sort of deal you can get. There are some amazing developments out there and people who invested in them early will be laughing, but some developemtns are starting to top out, so ar not really worth the investment. I invested in an apartment off plan and it's gone up by 25% since I bought it. I could sell it tomorrow with no problem whatsoever if I wanted to. It's all about research and making informed decisions. There are big changes to the way the property market is working, with the introduction of escrow accounts for all developers, which is already weeding out the bad ones. Just 5 years ago Dubai was way at the bottom of the scale when it came to transparency and having a credible market, now it's up there with most European markets. It has learned the hard way from it's mistakes, but is slowly but surely coming into line with reputable property markets. arniegang Sorry Chocs i disagree with most of what you say. The is every indication of serious readjustment of around -20% by 2009. Yes you will always get certain developments that hold their value, but this is the exception rather than the rule. Escrow makes no difference to the market, it never did and wont. I only know of 2 developers since 2002 that went under and and done a runner. Indications are that around 125,000 properties will complete and flood the market by 2009. Ian probably has more accurate projected figures THe only thing i agree with is that you say Dubai is coming into line with the european markets - Yup thats right and thats currently downwards Chocs. Spain is finished everyones getting out and loosing buckets of cash and the UK market is forcast to drop around 10-15% this year. The States ? forget it, down mega buscks and the yanks can hardly give their homes away. Dubai Knight I bought a wheelie bin in Karama, 'off street', and it has depreciated badly. I used an e-screw account and expected the property to capitalise at market rate, especially on market days. I used to be able to charge the flies 1Dh a day in rent, but that rate has now dropped to 25Fils and I am finding they are able to get a better deal at the dumpster down the road. Oh woe is me! All I am left with is negative equity and a bad smell! :cry: :cry: :cry: Knight ^ian^ All the economic forecasts say prices are going to continue to rise. However, they're called crashes specifically because not many people see them coming... remember that. arniegang is that a tip Ian ? :wink:
^ian^
Um... I am not even going to speculate on what the market is going to do.
As Sheikh Mohamed says, there is nothing like Dubai in history, so history cannot say what shall happen to Dubai. Chocoholic Weel as I'm dabbling in the property market on both sides now and from my current experience there is no shortage of overseas investors, and residents are seeing buying as a better option because of rental increases. Like I said it depends on where you buy, you have to invest smart. arniegang Chocs - overseas investors only exist where and whilst there is a market ie "rental income" + short term gains", once that market ceases to exist so do the investors - its as simple as that. When supply exceeds demand this is the time the foreign investment will go elsewhere. ^ian^ The question of whether supply outstrips demand is an interesting one. JBR is currently estimated to be about 15% occupied (independent figure, not from source) which leaves quite a lot of empty apartments. Meanwhile there are other apartments in the marina just sitting empty rotting... all while the landlords refuse to lower rents, perhaps not having the financial pressure you or I would have to rent out an apartment quickly. 'They' are now pushing people out of Villa sharing situations in an effort to move the largely single and independent expat workforce into the skyscrapers that the 179 developers in this Emirate have built or are attempting to build. Everywhere I see "TO LET" signs, Al Barsha and the Marina especially (but also some cropping up at JLT) and not many lights on in the evenings. It would see that in terms of supply and demand, cheap affordable and ready accommodation is indeed in demand and the supply is not there. Take out the cheap and affordable bit, there is certainly an oversupply, but at a price many are not willing to pay. It will be interesting to see what happens this year. arniegang interesting post Ian. Is there something you are not sharing with us?? Dr.D
You keep insinuating that Ian knows something the rest of the market doesn't.
Only thing I would say is, if anyone offers you advice on the pretence that they 'know the market'... run. Fast!
Nobody truly knows what's going to happen next week, next month, next year. It quite well could go on booming until 2525... or next week the US could bomb Tehran and the guts will fall out of the entire region.
Nobody knows, and those who claim to do, are wrong. ^ian^ Also don't forget the 3 most important things about property. mrs Robinson
location location location? gezza &zawyaemailmarketing just seen this... Dubaidude007 I am not nearly as aware of the ins and outs of the UAE property market as I should be. To me it seems that developers are delaying delivery of apartments and villas on purpose to keep the market from crashing. I think that the market is highly inflated and buying now even for rental purposes is inadvisable. This is just my opnion, I am sure if I am grossly mistaken someone will correct me. Dr.D
Pure unfounded rumour. I can say without question that developers certainly want to get their developments finished... there are no intentional delays. arniegang
Ian
do you know anything about this? I am lost regarding the article posted by Geeza. In my Dev as im sure in JBR and many others there already exists an "owners association" or the "right" for owners to form one.
For example in ours, the Articles of Association clearly states that we have a right if enough members attend and vote to dismiss Emrill if we so wish and we have the right to appoint a management company of our choosing. Presently Emrill are accountable to us in justifying how the management charges are spent by way of an annual meeting that can be called by a minimum of 5 owners.
Two years ago there was a near revolt by the owners of Marina Phase1 (the original 5 towers at Marina Walk) when they objected to the annual maint charges and Emrill learnt a very quick lesson in how not to piss off owners.
I therefore dont see the relevance of this new proposal. Why would owners pay their maint charges into a sep account for maintenance charges and then pay the developer an annual fee (for what).?
On a general winge, as the freehold and and Association rules were based on the Brit System, i dont see how the Gov't can interveine in a legal document made previously between owners and the developers?? arniegang found this which is a bit more informative I belive this will only be implimented for newly completed developments. Alex1111 I totally disagree with the earlier statement that escrow accounts wont make a difference because it will.Overseas investors who make up a large portion of buyers will feel more confident to buy in dubai. arniegang
This is only because those stupid foreign investors now bow to the developers whim of asking for anything upto 90% of the purchase price before they take possession. This is almost unheard of in the west.
Back in 2002/2003/2004 developers like Emaar only asked for 30% deposit and 70% on completion.
Those who bought off plan on the new pay as you build system from 2005/2006 are approximately 25% down on the deal because the dollar was weaker then.
Anyone who buys off plan and pays 90% upfront before handover quite frankly need their heads examined.
However anyone who thinks thier money is safe regarding Law No. 8 concerning Guarantee Accounts of Real Estate Development in Dubai are also fools. If you read the small print, any developer can withdraw funds from the Escrow Account lodged with the Land Department as long as they produce the correct paper work. The only caveat in the Law provides that a developer cannot take the final 10% until ALL apartments have been sold and registered with the Dubai Land Registry. So in reality the money is not really that safe apart from 10%.
(law no8 only applies to developments commenced after July 2007) suncoast Hi I am close to agreeing to a job in Dubai for a 2 year initial period and am considering what is the best option either rent or buy. I have been told that I would need to budget for between 2 to 3k sterling for a good 2 bed apartment - yet I could but the same apartment for approx 200k. I would appreciate any thoughts or advice Thanks benwj
Your figures are about the minimum.
Around the marina is a good place to look if you are after something to move into sooner rather than later. onetickin Whoever didn't make money in the UK market over the last 10-15years must be a idiot. Wait a minute, that makes me an idiot. I must have been the only person to loose, so don't listen to me. Breeze Everytime I hear something like ' don't buy the prices are silly...' it just makes me laugh. I came 3 yrs ago and that's the advice I got from my friends and colleagues. I wasn't new to the buy / sell ppty thing though , thank god otherwise I would be still sitting there like most of them now payig ridiculous rent and getting no thanks for it , packing and unpacking... See I wouldn't even waste my mental energy try predict what the hell is going to happen in any ppty market in the world let alone Dubai's, I think and I believe in a very simple principle and that is : ppty is better than no ppty. Believe me , I've seen it over and over again. oh , and a piece of advice , try buy somewhere little decent ... because yes in today's vain world location , location , location is very important. You pay a bit more and you get a bit more in the future ...it works . suncoast Hi Breezw where would you suggest to buy? I was thinking of Maina or JBR or alternatively a 2 bed villa - maybe at the Springs or A Ranches. Any thoughts advice would be welcome! Chocoholic It really depends on what you're buying for, to live in or to rent out. Take a development like Sport City in Dubai Land, that is going to be the hub of all sporting events and concerts in the near future and there ar only 3 hotels in the development, so there is opportunity for short term leases as people will come in and always need somewhere to stay. You're dealing with the maste developer, can get the property mortgaged upto 90% and either manage it yourself or get a company to do it for you. Several of my friends have invested there and I think it's a really good opportunity. It really depends on your take on the market here, I can't see it going into a slump anytime soon, when so many people are coming here every month and the tourism industry is forever growing. I for one have done my research have a good consultant and have made good, sound purchases which I'm very happy with. arniegang please dont say you have invested in Sports City Chocs :shock: ps there are only 2 hotels not 3 planned for sports city - that should tell you a lot Chocs ie: they are not expecting many people there Its predicted to be as Successful as Endurance City AKA Ghost Town. As part of the overall project being Dubai Land the success of this depends on the signing of Universal and Disney. Neither have yet committed. Invest elsewhere Chocs, i will not charge you a "consultancy fee" :P Breeze I think the Marina and even JBR are still good investments, watch the quality though some of them can be on the low side . I personally don't like the look of the JBR towers but I can see it become lively in the future. I also think somewhere near a metro station like the JLTs wouldn't be a bad idea. Good luck Alex1111 Personally I think Silicon Oasis is better than alot of areas to invest in if being able to rent is your concern.With 93 companies signed up since April 2007,more to come and next to Academic City there will be plenty of takers.This doesnt even take into account the rumoured 30.000 workers Microsoft will be putting there. suncoast been offered some 1 beds at jbr - ranging from approx 220k to 320k sterling - risk verus reward - seems 2 be more on the risk side presentaly!!!!!!!!!!!!! Chocoholic Yes I did invest there. And there are 3 hotels not 2, The Cube, another independent one and one built and run by the master developers. Any other hotels will be condo apartments or serviced apartments. Sport City is a great project, with lots of potential. Thanks Arnie, but I already have my own consultant, who I do some referal work for, and they shouldn't charge for giving good advice, it doesn't work like that, they get money from commissions of sales, but sale no sale, not a problem, so long as the advise is good and that's what reputations are built on. Half the agents here will sell crap just to get the good commissions, which is not how it should be. Anyway I'm sticking to my opinions, as I've done my research and I know what's good and what's not. Alex1111 I dont think the fact that sports city has only 2 hotels is a major issue.Al Bawadi will have 31 and thats nearby. john smith Although I'm very much just a lay-man I also wouldn't touch sports city or any other of the developments springing up in the desert. I'm not of the opinion that many major sporting events will take place there - what events would they be and what time of year (certainly not between may and sept) and who wants to live next to a sports stadium anyway? I have bought in JBR and Í'm firmly of the belief that this area of dubai i.e marina, jbr, palm j, dubai promenade is a better investment. Whatever happens to this city, the marina and the beach will always be worth a visit. Not sure how many holiday makers will be visiting sports city. Equally this area will always be favoured by people working at media/internet city, jafz, business bay, new airport etc. Location, Location, Location. I wouldn't hold on to a sports city property for long, but if you can make a fast buck then good luck. Just my opinion for what it's worth. Breeze Arabian Ranches ...mmm....no I wouldn't go for that either. Traffic like hell and in the middle of nowhere.. arniegang
please see here Chocs
As you can see there are indeed only 2 hotels planned. The Cube is a privately owned serviced residence. Again i repeat this should send alarm bells ringing. If the developer/s were confident that this would be a dead cert then why privatise?.
I am just giving you the benefit of my advice in buying/selling/investing property over the last 27 years Chocs. I have made **** up's i admit, but the lessons one learns in life the quickest, are the ones that costs one dear.
As an example if i remember back in 2005 you were most vocal in slagging off any form of propery purchase anywhere in dubai when I was telling you to buy. Had you followed that advice back then you would have been sat on a very nice sum of money indeed now.
It makes no difference to me whether or not you buy, personally i wouldn't, i am just trying to get you to focus as too whether or not its a wise investment. Dont get sucked into the hype and buyer beware especially as you feel the need to "consult". Ask your "consultant" how many deposits he has "personally" put up in Sports city then ask him to show you the purchase documents. Alex1111 'Arabian Ranches in the middle of no-where'.Its just about the best villa development in Dubai by far and poss the best residential development of all.A town within a city and only 30 mins from the beach.Also when Dubailand is finished it will be right on the doorstep. bonk There are reports that Dubai will try for the 2020 Olympic Games. Sports City property will be in demand if that happens. Alex1111 2020 is a long way off.I dont think Dubai will get the Olympics as it would be way too hot to have it in August and I just cant see them moving it to say May or October. Dubaidude007 Olympics are not a possibility here because of the above stated reasons. Unless Nakheel is planning on flipping out again and launching a "cover for the sky" development Breeze Alex1111. It will still feel like the middle of nowhere to me even with Dubailand or at least that's what it feels like when you're on the coast (ie: Marina, Jumeirah).
You know Dubailand's effect will ware off very quickly it's only good when you're a tourist or visiting , when you're a resident you think about things like getting to work and back quickly , getting to the nearest mall, bar , beach , show or whatever without having to spend an hour in the car.
I'll say it again even a beautifull mansion is only worth where it is
That's my personal view mate.
Chocoholic Arnie, I beg to differ seeing as I was working for BMG the developers of the Cube! It's a reputable German company. It's a 5 star hotel! Individual investors buy the apartments and the builing runs as a hotel by an independent operator, the investors take a share of the profits made by the hotel. It will run this way for a contracted 20 years, after that period the investors decide if they wish the building to continue running as a hotel or they wish to take possession of the apartments for themselves. Each investor gets 30 days stay per annum within the hotel, not necessarily in the apartment they have purchased. This way of working things has worked all over the world, but it's a new concept for Dubai. You can visit the website www.bmg-group.de Chocoholic The 2 hotels mentioned on the Sport City website will be product of the master developer, hence no mention of the others, of which there is only 1 - The Cube. And am I not allowed to change my opinion? Alot has changed in the last 3 years, I've done alot of research an have a friend who works in property as a consultant and he refuses to sign up to or advise people to buy bad investments. I've made my choice, I've formulated my opinions based of research, why can't you just accept that? arniegang No need to be so crabby because my opinion differs to yours Chocs. I am well aware of the Cube, i considered purchasing there. Like i said dont be sucked in by the hype. I was merely trying to get you to focus and evaluate the pro's and cons of an investment as i would any friend. I am also aware of the BMG Group as this featured heavily in their sales pitch. They have NO track record Chocs, the Cube being their only their 2nd project world-wide. This concept is not tried and tested and has no track record. It is not going to be a 5* hotel, in fact, the official name for the building is going to be "The Cube Condo Residence". Its basically Timeshare with Individual appartment owners Chocs. The Germans are heavilly into this form of scam. Reputable investors laugh at this concept, and is sold to those idiots who "want to live the dream", and usually sign up whilst on holiday whilst their heads are still in cloud cuckoo land. Time has proved that Timeshare or its derivatives are far from a good investment and the winners are always the developers and managing agents. There is a guy living up the road from me (Bath), he is halfway through his 15 year stetch, compliments of Her Majesty for taking holiday punters in Teneriffe for £millions. His other business at the time was being the man behind the "Brinks - Matt Robbery", aka Mr Goldman. Everything in their (BMG) literature is based on assumptions in particular projected income. Unfortunately they make no projections re: the expenditure/ running costs. But they dont have too do they? They have no capital investment in the building, and If no profit is made or even a loss, you and the 527 others will foot the bill. They are in a "no loose" situation. They worst case scenario for them is "break-even", and dump off after 20 years. The only one they have up and running is the Kaiserdamm and they seem proud to advertise that towels are only changed weekly :shock:. Hardly 5* dont you agree ? No disrespect Chocs, but you were posting originally advocating too others what a great investment it was. You have a right to post your opinion, likewise so do i. My comments although directed at you are there for all to read. Anyways, Good Luck with your investment Chocs. suncoast Hi on HSBC's website regarding mortgages they stae they will fund JBR up to 60% of value but Arabian Ranches at 85% of value. Is there any a reason for this or is it because they feel the value of Arabian Ranches is more robust than JBR? thanks Breeze Well there is a bit of promotion too there ... To me it looks like some banks try give a push to some developments by offering more , if you ask them they say that it's a safe investment for them (low risk). benwj
This is a very good observation.
In the early days none of the banks were financing the premiums.
They then started financing a portion of the premiums on villas only.
Now they are financing 85-90% of the full purchase price of villas and in your case 60% for JBR.
Banks in the UAE don't lend money unless they are certain they will get it back.
This tells me that the banks are gaining confidence in the market, but still a bit careful regarding apartments.
As for the Olympics. It would certainly be a huge boost to the whole Dubai real estate market, not just sports city. john smith ADCB financed 90% of my JBR purchase 3 weeks ago. suncoast Hi John - can i ask what you bought at JBR, how much and waht agent you used? Also re your mortgage have you been livin in Dubai for some time? Thanks in advance! john smith 1 bed, high floor, full sea view. 1.2m betterhomes. I agreed the price and signed mou back in sept, think prices are a bit higher now. 2 years in dxb. but I only needed 3 month bank statements. Chocoholic Arnie, it's not a time share! There will be an appointed operator who runs the building as a hotel, what isn't there to understand about that? The investors don't get involved with the running of the place whatsoever. I'm well aware that it's called 'Condo residence' having WORKED FOR BMG, dealing with all the clients. But it will still run as a 5 star hotel, that's the whole point of the project. Anyway I was up at Sport City today and it's starting to look really good, the Victory Heights Villas are lovely. I really can't see that big names like Ernie Els, Manchester United, David Lloyd and the ICC moving it's head quarters there, doing so if they felt it was a bad project. I like the apartments in JBR and the Marina, but it just all feels too cramped over there. When it comes to mortgages, each bank decides which project to tie in with, financing certain developments can still be a problem and you might not have a choice with the bank you end up dealing with. And watch out for the level of financing offered, very often they'll tell you they offer a certain percentage, but the level of financing you actually get will depend on your salary, so many people will have to be prepared to pay more cash upfront. arniegang Chocs no one said it was a bad project, i said it was a crap investment. By the way David Lloyd has a Tennis Academy 5 miles down the road in Bristol, he has lots of others, its no big deal. The ICC is there because a/they have a deal they cant refuse ie FREE and b/ 99.99999999999999999 % of the population may find out who they are and what they do. They are already in Dubai at Media City and occupy the Janitors Room next to the gents restroom in Building 2 :lol: Man U is there because of a/ above and b/ Becks, Cole, Rooney and co want somewhere to kick a ball around in private :lol:. The investors have EVERYTHING to do with the running of the buiding, they bought it :lol:, and......... pay the estimated 15% management fee's and 15 dhs per sq foot maintenance charge. So........ they basically have paid millions for an appartment they can only use 30 odd days a year, then shell out money to a management company that has not produced any form of estimated expenditure and can give NO Guarantee of returns. If a loss is made, the contract states that the Residents must make up the shortfall. Sounds awfully like an "up market" version of timeshare to me Chocs. Alex1111 Unless sports city can sign up some regular big sporting events then it could be a dud.Football games will always be Man U,Milan etc for pre-season games or meaningless tournaments like the one just past,so forget that.Cricket,again exhibition games only so forget that too.Hockey the same.Theres no tennis courts as far as I know so no ATP events.Even if they could put on a big meaningful event whos going to watch?population in Dubai is currently 1.5million,maybe 2 million when SC is complete so expect small crowds as with the golf last week.Theres the swimming world champs in dubai in two years but not gonna be in SC also.Personally I dont get the point of SC. arniegang there will be no pre season football training in Sports City - July/August the perfect temperature yer right :lol: :lol: Alex1111 Your right,too hot for pre season.So whats the point of the football stadium?think this will be a big white elephant benwj Why all of the negativity regarding sports city? The sports city apartments are not trying to compete with the Marina, JLT or JBR. If they were, they wouldn't be a lot cheaper. How about Bawadi which is ?, 95 hotels, 100,000 rooms. Will it be a white elephant too? Alex1111 I think Al Bawadi is 31 hotels.Also they will be providing lots of entertainment and will be right next to Dubailand(not that Dubailand will ever get even a quarter finished I guess) sage & onion Go to this website and check it out, also note that Al Bawadi is a part of Dubailand /# dubaidog Chocs, I have to agree with Arnie on this one. The hotel/condo scheme only works for the developer. The buyers end up with a hotel room they can use 30 days a year. It is considered one of the worst ppty investments in Canada, anyway. there are also 1/10th share, quarter share, etc. They are a joke, the fees ALWAYS end up over 40%. All the owners are absentee, so the management company does what they want. Also, the rules are always changed and fees increase over time. You will never get enough revenue to service the debt. It all looks great on paper, but watch out! benwj Arabian Ranches is skyrocketting right now. Sports city is beside Arabian Ranches and will most likely follow. You need to drive between them both to get to Bawadi. What am I missing? Alex1111 The Prenmier League in the UK are interested in many playing one round of league games all over the world.Dubai was mentioned as one of those places.Sports City would be ideal.However we are only talking about one game.Many if it happened and went well other leagues,Seria A and La Liga would follow.I can see many european teams playing there around Christmas time when alot of them break for 3-6weeks as did the Milan teams recently. benwj The Dubai government just gave a donation to the IOC and the president stated that it would be possible to move the date of the olympics to suit Dubai. He was also impressed with SPORTS CITY. So it looks like Dubai is gearing up for a 2020 bid. rudeboy
oh arnie day putar u want to advice me when i should consider on buying in UAE?? cos i am thinking but since i read your post have changed my mind. cos honestly speaking 1 million dhs for 1 bedroom is a bloody not so funny joke. plz advice Sheikhmo Yes, 2020 would be a good year no? ssemo Hi Guys, Now this is how it works in short term, and I am only going to talk about short term and if you like the theory than I will explain the Long Term this equation is a guide to short term investment. In universities and schools of Economics they will charge you a lot of money to tell you this. If any of you have a question more than welcome to ask. x = i/r where x = return on investment i = investment r = rental income Being in Real Estate myself I can say that x should always be equal to 0.085 or in other words should be 8.5%. Now just to give you an example: If you buy a property for AED 600,000 and you get AED 60,000 this means x = 0.1 or 10% this means x is high. So there can only be two things that either the property price should goes up to AED 705882. In other words i should increase 705882 and x goes back to 0.085. Now you can also ask me 'r' can also go down so 'x' will go down as well but you have to remember that 'r' is driven by the market demand. this means that the rent is driven by the market so we have less control over it. If you do not understand the above i am just saying if the rental income is less than 8.5% of your investment then do not buy that property. On the other hand if the rent is more than 8.5% than buy the property and sell it when the rental income becomes 8.5% and look for a property where the rental income is more than 8.5%. If you need any more advise my real estate is in International City (BA). also remeber the above theory is for ready properties. Also if you ever talk to someone about the above theory please mention my name Imran from Black Arrow regards ^ian^ I've said it once and I will say it again... if anyone offers you advice like they 'know' the market... run and run fast. Any correct predictions for the next 12 months will be pot luck. Sheikhmo
The market will grow. 1.2 Million people will move to the UAE this year under the pantronage of our great rulers.
Both Abu dhabi and Dubai in race to become the greatest city on the planet. bonk
:shock: :shock:
Try x = r/i . shleep well, sure no one can predict the market but I can definitely crash the market. just have to invite my Iranian friend and ask him to grow his beard and shoot a water pistol, what the heck , he just needs to fart loud in the public and the tourism rate would drop by 50 percent. craigindubai
It will be a great international city once we wrestle control off the emiratii's... sage & onion
For once I have to agree, it is impossible to predict what will happen in this market. arniegang I disagree, Sage and Ian. Dubai cannot sustain the current rate of completions/occupancy. If this were untrue, then tell us why Damac is offering a BMW with ever appt and a Bentley for their penthouses. If they are selling like hotcakes as they would have us believe, then why the incentives ?? The developers know the market conditions well and they are offloading properties with incentives while there is still a few sparks left in the housing market and using incentives to keep the market artificially moving. When developers start running scared so should everyone else. The problem is there is a reluctance to accept this and people are still holding onto the dream to make buckets of cash - it just aint gonna happen now. Emaar are now releasing 2million + Dhs 1 bed appartments. Calculate what the purchaser needs to rent that for to return 8% profit after paying agents and maintenance fees. And yet we here agents out there telling us it will grow in value - i think not. Most expats cant afford to rent their own appt/villa without sharing the cost at the last 2 years highs, let alone the ridiculous future value predictions of agents. arniegang
This prediction was made by Bob the Builder and his cat Pilchard.
1.2 million this year - yeaaaa right :lol: :lol: :lol: ^ian^
in the long run, you're probably right, but predicting as to when it will actually peak has proved a challenge and many a subsequent embarrassment for economists, even those in the employ of the government.

They have been doing this for quite a few years now. It's hardly an incentive anyway when you do the math, but it used to be Jaguars, and it was something else before that too.
They also gave away the chance to win a jet or one of four hot supercars. It's not new for Damac.

I can assure you without question, the developers know just as much about the economic future of this market as every other person who has an opinion. Within the office of His Highness himself, regularly they joke about the last bold prediction of the Dubai crash as the supposed date whizzes by (or so I am told).
The bottom line is, this thing is going to be produced, built, marketed and hyped to the bitter end, and there is work being done (supposedly) to ensure that bitter end itself is a moving target.
Dubai has really and seriously exceeded my disbelief as to how much a city can just create growth out of nothing. It's Keynesian economic meets marketing hype and it seems to be working.

If you think Developers are running scared then you will be amazed what some of the projects upcoming will be. Your eyes will literally pop out of your head.

I wonder the same thing... and yet they keep selling.

To be fair, most expats baulk at the idea of spending any more than 20% of their income on rent, which is funny because back in 'Ol Blighty or wherever they came from they were spending more than that.
If you're going to take the high salary, then you have to take the bad with the good. If you don't think the salary is that great, then stay at home. I'm not jumping on the 'if you don't like it leave' bandwagon, moreso I am saying do the math, and if the math don't work, don't come. If you can get a better deal elsewhere, take it.
To be honest, if more people actually followed through on their noise instead of just making it, perhaps you would see the supply and demand curve shift back towards the buyers favour. rudeboy i was thinking of investing but seriously the prices have gone nuts :S. 1 bedroom for one million :S i might as well get a 3 or 4 bedroom appartment in Sharjah or Ajman. or even a villa in Shj or even an older villa in Dubai. but does anyone here know a really good real estate agent?? arniegang soz triple post arniegang soz triple post arniegang
First for a long time Ian, i practically agree with everything you say. The only caveat and possible disagreement with you is on time scales.
However those of us who are true and experienced speculators make their profits on hunches, risk, luck and the ability to read or predict the market.
The crash or whatever one calls it isn't iminent, not by a long way. IMHO the road from where the serious problems started around a year/18 months ago. When property fever really really took off in Dubai. Since then the market has only moved one way -upwards.
The problem is at that point very few of us actually owned completed properties and everyone wanted a piece of the action. As in all property markets it spiralled upwards driven by demand. Sadly, those that are riding this temporary wave of euphoria havent actually completed or own any appartments.
This year 65000 units are expected to come to completion for those that got on before the frenzy of the last 18 months. Around 80% of these are going to come back on the market as sales or rentals. There is not enough demand to service these completions.This will trigger the reverse in a downward spirral, so that by those completions in the next 24/36 months will be worth less than the contracted price demanded in the "frenzy" period.
The difference between someone like me and the newbie wanna get rich quick brigade is to have the ability to read the long term signs that will lead the market on the road to destruction.
Dubai is no different to any other established market. I was buying and selling off plan in the mid 80's when i could complete and sell the same day because the market was driven and collapsed by the ending of "tax relief" on mortgages. Its not rocket science, its just knowing when to see the signs saying "good time - bad time" and following basic rules.
In 2002 i remember being offered a Amlak mortgage through Emaar @ 5%. Look at the rate now its a joke, and is the reversal of the general trend througout Europe, US Aus etc where the trend has been that rates are stable with a bias downwards with inflation to match, the Dubai market has done the exact opposite. Not good signs for a stable infrastructure or ecomomy.
When the market does start to turn, i'll bet you all those who havent completed or has just completed start to run like rats, flooding the market. I havent even mentioned when the banks start running scared having lent on inflated purchases and people starting to default on mortgages that have a balance higher than the property is worth. Dubai will suddenly learn what negative equity is. Dubai will learn about "repossesions" too.
Theres gonna be some serious very serious casualties but like you rightly say Ian, no one know when, but the warning signs are all there sage & onion The only thing I said was that it is impossible to predict, the same way that back in 2000/2001 nobody was able to predict what would be happening here today. One year ago everyone was predicting that prices will fall especially when JBR comes on the rental market, well its here, and the prices are not falling they are still rising.
As far as I am concerned DAMAC ([color=red]D[/color]on't [color=red]A[/color]nticipate [color=red]M[/color]aking [color=red]A[/color] [color=red]C[/color]ent) cannot be used as a benchmark for the market. dubaidog
Sage, are you saying that DAMAC is a rip-job? I just went to their showroom. They don't have much coming up till 2009. Would you think that purchasing for a place to live (vs. renting) is a good idea. I know that investing for rentals is a slim shot, but everyone needs somewhere to live. At these rates, I'll be paying 500k in rent in the coming years. I was thinking that if the prices NEVER go up, the worst I could do is break even when I sell, rather than wasting that cash on rent? Our lease is up mid-Nov. so I have been looking for places available then (or now).
I have noticed that the pricing can vary wildly in the same community/building. There are a lot of people just trying the market, and you can spot those that are keen to sell, as they are usually "realistically" priced several hundred thousand below the others.
DAMAC in particular claims better finishings, etc. , but they charge 15 AED per square foot per annum maintenance fees. That is just crazy, I don't care how nice the gardens are. Sounds like a cash-grab to me. bonk
Because Damac doesn't actually build anything, they just talk about it ;). arniegang
I still disagree with you Sage - JBR has affected the marina area prices and itself. Prices there in my opinion has at best, leveled off and at worst have fallen or are open to serious negotiation downwards by potential purchasers.
In Dec i spent 3 days viewing over there and every single one i looked at the owner was prepared to seriously negotiate. THe problem there is the basis of my view in that, as soon as supply exceeds demand (like JBR) then the purchaser has more power and choice.
THere has been a 16th Floor 2 bed veranda appartment for sale in JBR since completion, nice appartment, nice view. Offered at 2.1 million, i put in a cheeky offer of 1.65 and it was accepted.(i didnt buy it btw)
Estate agents need take their head out from their bottoms and advertise /market properties at their realistic value, the current hype is driven in the main by the new breed of salesmen that hardly existed in Dubai 3 years ago. ^ian^ Arnie, everything you've said qualifies you to have an opinion and nothing more. If markets and crashes were that easy to predict, people wouldn't fling themselves out of buildings... in fact, there would be no booms and no busts... just a flat line. But the truth of the matter is, everyone saying things would go down at the start of 2007 were wrong. People saying things will go down in 2008, could be right, or they could be wrong... but only history will be the judge. Personally, I'm not going to make a prediction because despite my knowledge of economics, my knowledge of markets and my access to reports that most people don't see... I'm not that foolish. And not foolish to the point I think the unpredictability of this market means it's better left alone, or understand entry means the risk may be high. But with high risk comes high reward... and then it all becomes gambling... which lets face it, that's what speculating is. If it goes up, it goes up. If it goes down, it goes down. arniegang
Sorry Ian i disagree with you. Booms and busts are, in the main easy to predict, the most recent examples are the property markets in Spain, UK and the States.
I accept there is the odd blip like "black monday" which caught the Brits and the Americans by surprise but this is a rareity.
I never wished to insinuate my posts are anything other than my opinion and if i have given the impression otherwise then i apologise.
I do not have a degree in anything, but a degree doesn't give anyone a tool to go on the road of success. Personally i have measured my success by my results. Yep i have made mistakes that have cost me dear i admit, but those mistakes teach you far more than you can learn or achieve in Uni. Alex1111 Unless you know how many properties will be completed year by year,2008/2009/2010 etc,and you also know how many people will move to Dubai each year then predictions are next to useless.There are other reasons for prices going up besides real estate agents forcing them up. Lack of construction workers means delayed projects means less supply.Escrow accounts means less developers means less supply.40% of intended projects in dubai have dissapeared. Increased materials costs means new projects launced at higher prices which drags prices for existing projects upwards.Possible lower interest rates as Dirham pegged to the dollar means more potential buyers. Dubais prices do not match those of other cities and assuming they come up to speed currently 350/400.000 for a studio is peanuts. Dubai will become possibly one of the top 5 cities in the world making it a highly desirable place to live meaning more demand. These huge projects in the pipeline like Waterfront,would they go ahead if the developers thought that prices would crash? Personally I believe even if there is a price correction ,long term investing in Dubai will be worth it. Personally,I have had a good offer for a studio of mine and due to financial reasons I will probably except it.If I knew it would shoot up over the next few years then I would keep hold of it but then I dont know how the market will go.No-one does. Alex1111 From globalpropertyguide today - The Middle East has low prices... Because of their early stage of economic development, many Middle Eastern markets' property is still undervalued, leaving room for capital growth. Property prices in the Middle East are highest in Tel Aviv at around US$5,000 per sq. m., followed by Dubai at around US$4,000 per sq. m. craigindubai Long term, you can NEVER lose in property (Barring a war or natural disaster). Short or medium term - Yes you can do your @ss very damn quickly trying to predict a boom or bust. MaaaD
thats just a sign of a healthy market. An apartment i bought just completed, and i put it out for rent. not only did it rent out in two days .. the first people who came to see it took it. We are still far away from a position where supply exceeds demand. arniegang [quote="MaaaD
thats just a sign of a healthy market . An apartment i bought just completed, and i put it out for rent. not only did it rent out in two days .. the first people who came to see it took it. We are still far away from a position where supply exceeds demand.
Really :? :?
so an unhealthy market is ??????????? Sheikhmo
Really :? :?
so an unhealthy market is ???????????
We have villas in Mirdiff and each year we see price increase on rentals by 15% and we have none empty. One guy asked my father if he could evict current tenants and he would pay 20% more. My father is a good honest man though and rejected the offer.
I am thinking of buying apartments in new JBR although this is western area only it will be good rental money. I think market is still very strong and growing. Alex1111 GULF NEWS -
House prices in UAE to climb
By Andrew Shouler, Deputy Managing Editor
Published: February 27, 2008, 00:05

Dubai: The escalation of material prices and wages will drive construction costs and help propel house prices higher in the UAE, according to a research note by local brokerage EFG-Hermes.
With pending supply being delayed, but demand for property buoyant, developers are easily able to pass on higher costs to potential off-plan buyers, the note says.
Meanwhile, with local interest rates having dropped, real estate demand has been stimulated.
"Taking both cost and demand pressures together, we now believe that both off-plan and secondary market prices will rise significantly higher in 2008 than our previous expectation of 5-10 per cent." Analyst Sana Kapadia declined to give revised figures for the outcome, but agreed that the risks for investors would also rise.
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"The persistence of labour shortages, strong demand, and the mandatory adoption of green building codes, health and life insurance are likely to raise costs even further."
Lower interest rates also give the fillip of cheaper finance, as well as the incentive of greater reward in the face of meagre returns on deposits.
As UAE interbank rates have fallen from 4.9 per cent last November to 2.8 per cent today, mortgage rates have declined from 7.9 per cent to 5.8 per cent.
Monica Malek, economist for EFG-Hermes, made it plain that prospective inflation applies to prices rather than rental costs, which are subject instead to separate forces of supply and demand.
"In fact, we expect rental inflation to be negative in Dubai in 2008. Anecdotally, because of negative real interest rates, people are buying houses for investment purposes [which] adds to rental supply. For the UAE as a whole, consumer price inflation will nevertheless be driven by rental inflation in Abu Dhabi, which may be in the region of 30 per cent this year."
The report's assessment is in line with work by other analysts.
"A combination of strong demographic growth, negative real rates and increasingly available mortgage finance will boost demand at the same time as delivery delays look likely to moderate growth in supply," said Simon Williams, Chief Economist, HSBC Middle East.
"Taken together, those factors point to a very supportive [house] price environment." shafique Some of my favourite quotes: 'Whatever can never continue to rise will eventually fall' 'This time it is different' and 'Turkeys never vote for Christmas' I don't gamble and am wary of debt - that means that I am just an interested observer in the current property market. Currently rents are lower than a mortgage and associated ownership costs, so it doesn't make sense for me to expose myself to potential falls in capital if I were to buy. A concerning stat for me was the recent announcement of a >30% increase in debt in Dubai last year. Good luck to those that have made money and continue to make money on the property market here. Cheers, Shafique suncoast JBR rents are much cheaper presently than what peole are trying to flog them for - I haven't arrived in Dubai yet but I think I'll rent rather than buy now which was differnt to my view just 2 months ago! Gene
The average in Singapore at the surbuban areas is about Dhs 2,000 - 3,000 per sqft. At its outside core region, they are around Dhs 4,000 - 5,000 and inside core region is Dhs 7,500 upwards.
By comparison to other satellite cities like Hong Kong, Singapore, New York and London, Dubai is still very cheap. By the look of things going on here over the past few years, Dubai looks determined to get their act together. They have the political will and financial muscle, especially with their accumulated savings over the past decades. This is evident in their eagerness to invest in banks and companies in developed countries around US, Europe and Asia with their SWF. What else can Dubai and their neighbours do with all these US$ but to spend domestically and internationally which incidentally is causing the West to shake in their pants?
The chances of prices falling over the next 5 years is less likely than prices rising. If anyone can afford to invest in properties now in Dubai, my advise is to get at least one for a foothold here because if Dubai does become a hit like the rest of the satellite cities, there will be no way the middle-working class can afford a prime property within a lifetime. MaaaD Thanks Gene you read my mind :) And for all of you who think 7,500 dhs per sq ft is a lot. There are units in the Burj Dubai which are going for 8,000 dhs per sq ft. Alex1111 I agree Dubai prices in comparison to other cities are still cheap but what makes a 'satellite ' city? Also you have to consider the oversupply issue.Properties to house 3m at Waterfront,1m Palm Diera,850 buildings around Jebel Ali Airport,then all the other many properties around Dubai.The idea is build and they will come,is this realistic?London,Hong Kong etc developed slowly,not in 10/15 years. Alex1111 GULF NEWS - Dubai faces a shortage of both residential and commercial space. Based on the number of residence visas issued, the city's population of 1.67 million is growing by 300,000 a year. If this pace continues, the population is projected to grow to 4.1 million by 2015. If construction delays are "at a minimal," 170,000 new residential units will be available between 2008 and 2010, according to CB Richard Ellis. The demand for residential units is estimated at 70,000 per year against a delivery of 57,000 units. Maclean said Dubai's property sector growth is sustainable if economic growth continues and expatriate numbers continue to rise at current levels. But competition from construction within the region and slow infrastructure growth could undermine the city's property sector, he added. ebonics
this is a model of an article that is designed to fool a moron.
the 300,000 expatriates a year would not afford any of the units mentioned above to rent or buy for that matter, maybe a whole 25,000 would..
the rest are crammed into 2 bedroom units each with 10-15 bachelors living in them..
way to twist statistics to give people false sense that the property market is flying, buy buy buy... DDastardly I've just read through all 8 pages and i am still none the wiser as to whether to buy or carry on renting. On the one hand renting is flexible and slightly cheaper than buying, but then again by buying i would have an assest that might have the ability to appreciate. My main concern is that at present i have no idea how long i'm gonna be staying in dubai for, could be 18 months could be 10 years i just don't know. Alot of freinds have recently bought into discovery gardens as they think its gonna appreciate well over the next 24 months ish. arniegang
25k :shock:
you are being very generous
:lol: :lol: Alex1111 DDastardly buy dont rent.Your still in time to see your property value go up.Late delivery of units will keep prices going up for at least 2 years.Reports from Investment Banks prices will keep rising till 2012.If u hang onto it for 6years plus your'll go through the predicted price corrections which will then rise again.Dubai is on the way to become a great city and once the metro is complete and many of the amazing projects it will be a huge magnet for people to come and live.If 300.000 are coming now when Dubai is a constuction site and traffic is a nightmare think of how many will come when all thats in the past. admog
I am just making sure that your last post was an ironic joke.. please confirm it was... Alex1111 No but u are ebonics
past?
oh so the roads will expand by heat? ^ian^ Was involved in casual discussion on the weekend over a few beers involving people from several disciplines of the development cycle (from architects, to project managers, finance people and sales and marketing). Nobody thinks the prices are going to go anywhere but up for the next 2 to 3 years. ebonics ok so they're going up, but then what happens? it will continue to go up it will continue to not get bought due to the lack of people affording them it will continue to go up it will continue getting rammed with people that its rendered un-liveable it will continue to go up and then it will crash like a tonne of bricks. if you buy an apartment for X million, dont think its going to rise up by Xmillion + 1/4 million in a hurry.. if you want to double your money, start buying in other emirates, dubai's done and dusted.... ^ian^
Eventually it will hit a ceiling and will almost certainly plateau... nobody is sure when exactly it will hit this point though.
It really depends on what you want to buy a property for though.
If you want to buy to make money quick, then there is still some margin, albeit small, left in the market for flipping.
If you want to buy as a long term investment then you have committed to yourself to ride out any potential downturn in the market.
If you want to buy to avoid paying rent, now might not be the best time. Whilst a mortgage might seem cheaper, there's the hidden costs you need to factor in. A few years ago I came across quite a good spreadsheet that could tell you whether you were in front or behind on a property purchase when taken all the costs of ownership into account versus renting. You'd be surprised just how marginal the difference is. Wish I still had it but could easily recreate it I suppose.
The first category (the flippers) are the ones pushing the prices up too I might add, not the developers. The marketing in a lot of cases is still setting the trading points. Alex1111 Ebonics are u stupid?When I say past I mean there will come a time,in around 5 years maybe when the majority of roads and bridges will be completed.the metro will also be finished hopefully.Obviously there will still be some road construction going on but congestion should hopefully be greatly reduced. Ian is right regards you can still do well with Dubai property if you ride out the predicted levelling off with prices and price corrections.It cant just keep going up of course.Buy now,and in around 6-8 years maybe prices will have calmed down and instead of rising 10/20/30per cent per year etc it will be down to single figures and those who buy now will have done well. Dont forget Dubais prices are still way down on other cities and if all the amazing projects get completed it will be a city that will be an absolute magnet for people to move to. shafique
A bit harsh?
Cheers,
Shafique ebonics
am i stupid?
how about you bring a pen and paper and start doing the maths of 300,000 per annum coming in, with the rate of "increased" infrastructure...
mate if you're going to throw insults, at least know what you're talking about, the moron here is you subscribing to such rubbish propaganda, when the place around you speaks for itself. they can finish all the infrastructure that they want to finish, the existing roads arent changing, they're not going to levitate buildings to make roads larger, the roads arent sustaining as it is. and 300,000 people a year are flowing in... am i stupid? think before you talk my friend.
may your roads expand with heat, chump. shafique ebonics - I agree with your view. 'This time its different' is what I keep hearing... but I'm not convinced yet. Happy to be proved wrong (and I was consistently proved wrong in the UK when I kept saying prices must fall - they only have recently started the downward trend..) That said, guys are still coming over and paying what us 'old timers' think are crazy prices. A friend of mine just moved into a 3 bed in Springs and paid 210,000 (furnished). The landlord bought the place for 600,000! We have only been here 2 years, and are paying 100k (unfurnished) for the same model house (and the guy before me was paying 70k). But - there are still loads of houses lying empty, landlords are reportedly holding out for the high rents and not budging. Cheers, Shafique ebonics
they wont budge, and no one should expect them to budge, but with the increase, and not budging, and no one to occupy - multiply that by x amount of years = the date where it will all fall to the ground.
if you want to buy property, abu dhabi is slowly learning from dubai's mistakes, and other emirates will learn from both abu dhabi and dubai's mistakes and so on and so on... there's no plausable reason why you would buy property priced at what it is now, when 200km down the road things are a fraction of price, better built, with better infrastructure. benwj
What do you mean by Dubai's mistakes?
The Dubai real estate market has never missed a beat.
And Abu Dhabi are trying to copy the Dubai model. admog
Sticks and stones, sticks and stones.
Just because people do not subscribe to your point of view, which is clearly assisted by propoganda and figures that dont stand up to even the merest glance of scrutiny, throwing direct insults at people just demonstrates your juvenility, along with taking away credibility that any of your points may have.
The future of Dubai is a hotly debated one, demonstrated by the varying views on this particular thread.
Listening to all sides of the arguement and commenting as you see it, is better than reproducing government manipulated figures, as we all know which side of the arguement the government are on.
Just to throw another hat into the ring on that one.
Seeing as Dubai Government restricted the continual use of the visit visa, it was an absolute certainty that all these people working on visit visas have had to change to official reseidence visas, which gives a huge number of 'new' residence visas over a short period of time.
In addition to that, Dubai have widely touted official 'tourist' visitors to Dubai of 5-7 million per year over the last 3 years.
Think of the estimated 250,000 people that were working in Dubai, but actually living here until last autumn on a visit visa - this number effectively swelled yearly tourist figures by 2-3 million, every year. A figure which obviously helped to also demonstrate Dubai's huge 'growth' as a tourist destination.
I am just demonstrating that anyone can produce numbers. But until you look at the value of the figures they mean nothing and can be badly represented.
My personal opinion...?
Every year goes by and the figures continue to defy the drop of gravity that many predict. I think it is easy to underestimate the amount of unfinanced funds in the Dubai market, which could possibly help to hold the market up far longer than sanity or maths would normally justify.
Looking at how long it has taken for over inflated markets in the Uk, US and Spain to slowdown demonstrates just how an overvalued market can continue to overvalue even more, despite all apparent logic.
As for Dubai in 2020, at this stage, we can all really only speculate.
What will get built - what won't - there are a million factors that could influence positively or negatively.
But my final comment is look at how much space Dubai has.
Many comments have been made about Singapore and Hong Kong, but Dubai has SPACE.
When a villa at The Ranches or Green Community costs anything up to 7million with a total mass area plot of upto 10,000sqft, but has THOUSANDS of square kilometres of desert behind it, the maths on long term sustainability of value do seem a 'little' flawed, to say the least. arniegang great post Admog ebonics definatly top post logic prevails.... dont believe the hype, yo. ^ian^ I don't think anyone disputes that there will be a correction, or at least a slowdown... and a medium risk of a crash... this will happen as sure as the sky is blue and dirt doesn't taste too good. The issue for many is predicting when such a thing will happen, and *when* is a very important timeframe. But the problem with all kinds of things like this, predicting when is more of a game of chance than a game of skill. What we know... those of us on the 'other side' so to speak is that the Government has faith enough to develop some pretty bold long term plans. It may be hype, or it may be great vision... who knows, but you can be assured that the controlled system of Dubai won't let it just crash. Alex1111 Sorry Ebonics and Admog,I normally react to sarcasim which both of u came at with first. Personally I dont believe 100per cent buying in Duabi is a win win win situation.I take as much notice of negative news as I do of positive news.For example,less work visas were issued last year than in 2006. When I read reports like that I take note, I have too,I've invested in property and I want it to do well.Theres no point whatsoever looking at everything through rose tinted glasses,u have to look at both sides. Someone made the point that Hong Kong has no-where to build but Dubai has desert,good example.However,the Dubai goverment can help to control prices by refusing planning permission. We all are entitled to our opinions and no-one but no-one knows what will happen.Even the so-called experts.Personally,like I said,I believe Dubai is a long term investment.Prices will stabilise,even drop,then Dubai will complete the metro and many of the amazing projects and people will come in large numbers I believe.Just my opinion. shafique
I'm pleased to see a healthy debate.
Alex - your point about government restricting supply to keep prices up is a good one. However, does this mean you agree that an over-supply will naturally lead to a crash/correction?
I think those who are of the opinion that prices will fall are pointing to exactly this effect - there will be an over-supply (at least that is my un-expert view when I just see the number of developments and compare it with the numbers entering and earning enough to buy a luxury flat).
Cheers,
Shafique ^ian^
Except it is false. Nobody is restricting supply, it's not necessary with the very real shortages in raw materials and even labour that is being experienced at the moment.
Do you think the construction companies would be quiet about the government restricting supply? Most already have more work than they can competently handle which is also raising concerns. shafique Ian - I agree. I was just testing the logic - if supply is not restricted after all, then prices will/should fall. My view is that it is hard to argue that the actual and planned developments in Dubai are an indication of a desire to 'restrict' supply. Ergo - fundamentals will come home to roost. Cheers, Shafique ^ian^
Natural market conditions are creating their own restriction. Price of course, is reducing the number of potential buyers everyday which is raising viability issues with planned projects.
Resources, animal, vegetable or mineral, are in short supply as well, again forcing the price of construction up and raising the barriers to entry.
Global Economics are pushing up the price of raw materials.
The government hasn't had to delay the launch of a single project yet to restrict supply. On top of that, there are 187 non-government developers in Dubai alone, who so long as they can satisfy section 8, are not regulated by the government.
I wish people would put this conspiracy theory to bed. MaaaD Ian the government can control supply of land, after all all the land is owned by the sheikh/government of the respective emirate. So if Dubai had concerns about oversupply, they can just stop issuing land to the master developers (who in turn resell to the private developers). i think that was the point being made. ^ian^
Yes but they're not currently doing this either. Sure enough, there are 3 developers in control of Land Banks at the moment (Dubai Properties, Tatweer and Nakheel) and these are in-sync with the Zoning Authority for freehold development. FWIW, Emaar have exhausted their own Land Bank.
All 3 still have land available to the 'right' investor.
If and when the need arises for more land, more will become available. This of course, is no different to land and zoning in any other established country, where you can only build certain developments in certain zones.
The bottom line is, land issuance isn't being used as a strict control today. It may be in the future, but I doubt that highly for reasons I will shy away from. MaaaD Here is a well thought out article by Peter Cooper on the Dubai Property market in the medium term and why the prices are gonna continue to rise.
Alex1111 Shafique I do think there will be a price correction or just a rapid decline in price increases.It cant shoot up forever.My personal opinion is that Dubai should have created the infrastructure first and then allowed unit to be built.People dont want to live in a war zone.Units will be completed faster then infrastructure but not enough people will come maybe,because of the traffic and the constrction all around them.So under supply will become oversupply.Then as big improvements are made people will come in many numbers and prices will creep up to normal levels each year.As has been said,the increasing material costs and labour problems will push prices up and maybe cause some developers to give up. When I see projects like Waterfront and Arabian Canal the word 'oversupply'def comes to mind.Together those two alone will house around 3million.I also wonder who will buy into the developments that will be released around those 2 say in 2/3 years when the Dubai market will have slowed right up. As for the goverment having no control over prices,if they want to refuse permission to build then they can do whatever they want. ebonics you can buy, it can increase, but good luck selling... or finding buyers at the price you want, when its time to sell.. personally id invest property in my home land, here offers 0 incentive for me to buy... my rent gets paid for me, i dont believe the property market has anything of value to offer me that bricks and mortar back home cannot quadriple double - again all these articles with numbers of 300 thousand, 250 thousand "white collar" workers coming in a year..... i dont know what they think i am, but i personally dont buy into that crap exactly like its been said, with dubai's tourism industry, no one i know comes here for tourism purposes, they come here en route to europe, the main attraction is europe, here is a stop over - so why not just have a look... they come, get dissapointed, and move onto europe.... in the meantime that makes the figures inflated into 3 MILLION TOURISTS.... ill question that on its own - ARE YOU DEADLY SERIOUS - what touristic attractions do dubai offer? a beach (WOW) - in sweltring 50 degrees i may add a camel (WOWx2) a big cloud of smog traffic jams an indoor ski slope (credit where credit is due here) then what? malls malls malls malls? overpriced hotels with an average price of a beer equating to 10 dollars? nightlife that ends at 3? bars infested with filthy prostitutes? i ask and i ask honestly, what has dubai got to offer a tourist other than a cheap outlet to shop? (thats not becoming so cheap anymore) no art no galleries no museums no culture no history no music no nightlife no boozing and a whole lot of indians and ninja women draped in black from head to toe... in conclusion, dont get the above data mixed up, like they get their touristic facts mixed up... 3 million stop overs that decide to stay for a day or five a year do not equate to 3 million tourists a year 300,000 expats, i bet you top dollar not even 2% of that is white collar able to invest in these units they speak of. ebonics i should also take this opportunity to mention to HUGE propaganda dubai insights into the world. when i came the first time here for my first visit when i was negotiating my contract, everyone was like WOW dubai, its the place to be, the mega center of the modern world etc etc.. uptill that point i believed thats how it was too.... till i came and seeing is believing.. the propaganda this place creates is nothing by hype and no game.... its no where near as glorified as it is portreyed in the media, especially overseas. benwj
It is obvious, due to the large number of vacant properties, that the majority are unfinanced, and this is the reason why the market has not already crashed as many predicated.
These predictions have now been adjusted to 2010-2012, when supply with surely outstrip demand.
But if you are planning on buying after prices drop, why not just buy now while prices are rising, and sell before the crash?
As for 2020... if anyone wants to bet against Dubai, please let me know.
Even if there are any correction in prices during 2012, they will only be temporary if Dubai win. Alex1111 Ebonics I guess Dubai cant be that bad if u choose to live there. As for tourist attractions , yes theres not enough but give it time. Rome wasnt built in a day and Dubai will take 10 years. ebonics thats the weakest cop-out of an answer - if they're paying foreigners bucketloads of cash who'd say no? its not bad - but its not what its portreyed to be to the west. - is my point i knew this and i still returned, im not here to be a tourist, im here to work. benwj "But if you are planning on buying after prices drop, why not just buy now while prices are rising, and sell before the crash? " that logic makes no sense to me personally knowing the risks coupled with it, if you bought for 2 million and you want to sell at whatever you want to sell at with a considerable profit, finding a buyer at such an over inflated price + your profit is extremely difficult.... and then the crash will come chasing you. ^ian^ assuming of course that when the corrections happens that prices will go down. It is quite possible for the market to go through a correction with the prices not moving up, but not moving down. Stagnantation in the investment market can be just as bad as prices going down. Alex1111 "iknew this and i still returned, im not here to be a tourist, im here to work. " Big time cop-out ebonics.I'm sure u could work anywhere but u chose Duabi cos u like it there.As a non property owner I can understand why u only see a negative side to the dubai property market.I on the other hand at least see both sides like other people on here.Sometimes in life u have to take risks and buying property is always a risk.Better to live like that than to hide in the corner with the lights out. ebonics mr alex, i had the option of working in dubai, i chose AD - sacrificing any sort of social life i may have had in dubai, because i dont think dubai is livable in its current state.
and how is it a big time cop out, i had a great job in oz, but now i get paid about 4 times as much, i just chose to invest in properties overseas, rather than here. i know my returns in bricks and mortar in a proven healthy real estate market, not succeptable to any sort of crash in the medium term.

wrong. its a risk in dubai.
its still not a risk in other emirates, where its a fraction of the price, and even the scummiest of areas in australia dont go down in price. ^ian^
Please point me to a development in Dubai that has gone down in price. ebonics
i constructed my argument how that it is inevitable.
its going to happen, just a matter of when. alex labelling his investment as a risk, is admitting so. ^ian^
Prices stagnating I think is inevitable.
Prices actually going down? The jury is out on that one. ebonics over supply, little demand (or rather demand that can afford the overpricing) = inevitable crash... ill put my money on 5 years. it is important to remember, current pricing is UNREALISTIC any which way you look at it. ^ian^
There are some slight issues with respect to your argument.
1. over supply and little demand - please point to a proper economical analysis which actually says this is the case. You have no real figures on what the supply and demand ratio is or how it is trending.
2. Unrealistic pricing. If it was unrealistic, they wouldn't be selling.
3. Anyone can say "in 5 years" and in fact, there is evidence that people said in 2007 the market will tank. It's 2008, and the market hasn't tanked.
So, whilst it's easy to be a doomsayer, the trends are pointing the wrong way to predict doom.
I am not ruling out a correction, in fact, I say it's a certainty and a period that Dubai needs to go through to sustain it's growth, but I am not so sure that the market will crash. It might, but then, I am sure steps are being taken to ensure it won't outright bottom out. St.Lucifer Ebonics.. I think its a bit over the top and a cynical view. If you look at the way u've mentioned , which country doesnt have its share of negative points? Like I mentioned before, there are places in india where the night life finishes at 11:30 and people still put up with it and the population is on the raise, economic growth of the state is india's highest. Speaking from an economic point of view.. I think, dubai's macroeconomic fundamentals are still very strong. To substantiate this view ,Dubai has a cash rich autocratic govt, Wouldnt have a problem with unemployment atleast for the foreseeable future due to a) some of the the strong industries b) the very reason that nationals are less in number and c) Govt's immigration policies. Add to that dubai's hidden fiscal policy through Saliks and other umpteen service provider companies owned and operated by Govt. Dubai has a no reason to worry at the moment of economic slow down. On the contrary, the real issues are dubai's model being copied by other emirates and middle-eastern contries and even more .. dubai's own different construction biggies. The development model, whether it is freezone for all kind of activities or the massive constructions are all copied inside dubai , by diff emirates and even outside the nation. This eventually could be the reason for economic slowdown and real issues, and thats when the cost benefit comparison of dubai VS other options come in. But even in this context dubai will have an advantage even though other countries and emirates have the same geographical, historical things to offer, dubai's club culture and sincity model would offer a significant advantage over others. I think dubai's economy feeds on its construction industry and like someone mentioned in the previous posts, since majority of the money that has gone in to the construction can stand invested for a long period, the price corrections may take some long time, but best hopes are dubai will have other means to support its economy by then(they already have, tourism, strong industrial zones, imp exp sector and a huge amount of money with people who cant spend it in their country due to various reasons ranging from instability, or taxation issues) and can still keep the prices at the same level. ebonics hardly a cynical view, but rather realistic. if they're selling, why are they uninhibited? the growth is sustained now, but its growing at a rediculous rate that infrastructure growth cannot match. the population that can inhibit this growth is very small, and the growth isnt catering for the people that actually need a place to stay. so you're left with apartments with about 20 individuals living in it, sharing the stupendous amount of rent asked by teh landlord... unemployment will never be an issue - housing employees is an issue that is growing exponentially.... there is a huge development here called workers village, specifically made to house the workers building the country, full amenities including their own hospital, own mall, entertainment, a living city in its own right. housing in such a city is affordable in different grades - from your basic construction worker given a bunk, to the site supervisor, to the coordinators, to a full suite for the project managers of different sites..... something like that gets my tick of approval, its needed, there's no room in dubai for such a project, although it makes all the sense in the world. Alex1111 Ebonics do u really think prices will rise for 5 years ?! Wow thats great,by then my investments would have done really well.By then the infrastructure will have caught up,the fantastic projects too, then people will flock to dubai and make a price correction even less likely ! fantastic ! Also please can u tell me where property is not a risk,I'll sell my UK home and put all my money where u say as its a guaranteed winner! By the way,friend of a friend brought a house in Sydney few years ago and now its worth less than what she paid.Mmm. ^ian^
Did she burn it down?
Seriously, get better friends, the current ones are feeding you bullshit. Alex1111 Sorry if u didnt like what i wrote Ian but I am only saying what I was told. Mmm,take it your an Aussie? ^ian^
It's not a question of whether I liked it or not, it's just a question of fact. ebonics fyi - sydney has probably boomed in the last 2 years more than any other place in australia.. so yes your friend is feeding you complete horse sh*t. benwj
actually although sydney has not gone backwards, it has been the worst performer of the australian cities over the past year, which have all done very well.
Still, nothing compared to the gains in Dubai though.
The dubai market is only 5 years old, so if you are not predicting a crash until another 5 years, there is still a lot of gains to be made until then. It would therefore make sense to sell you place in Oz, transfer the money to dirhams before they revalue it, and buy a place in Dubai. :) Alex1111 Ok,I'll pass it onto her that although she thinks her property is worth less,its actually worth more all on the back of your say so.That will make her feel a whole lot better. ^ian^
Well it's just a friend of a friend right?
In Australia lingo, a friend of a friend means 'bullshit' by the way, same as beginning a sentence with "true story..." Alex1111
If u want exact details u fucking dickhead,its a work colleague of my fiance!Her name is Julie,she works for emirates and lives
at Int City !
I'll get her fucking phone number so u can ring and fucking confirm ! Alex1111 Your right.Shouldnt let morons like u wind me up.Its the latin in me :twisted: ^ian^
* sigh * don't get so emotional. You made some good points and now you've just tossed it all away. admog
Obviously haven't been to International City lately...
No ebonics, just jesting. Agree with you on that one. Unfortunately with the construction workers only being deemed 'temporary', its never going to happen admog Firstly, if you are looking at the time of the forum posts - chill - im in Zurich at the moment, so its 'only' 12.40am. Ok. Time to throw something else into the discussion... One of the things that has came out of various conversations with people I know in construction in DXB is the issue of concrete fatigue. Apparently (and if someone can correct me then they are welcomed), there is a 'fatigue index' or something of that nature, which demonstrates the likelyhood of rapid deteriation of concrete in an environment. Apparently the UK has an rating of 6 (1 being low and 15 being the highest). Dubai (apparently) has a rating of 13, given its humidity and heat etc, which is a similar rating to Hong Kong, who regularly knock down their skyscrapers after 25 years to rebuild them as they are deemed unsafe. Yes I am the first to say there are a lot of 'apparently' in this post, but just thought it was worth throwing in to see what the facts were seeing as.. on this basis an apartment owner will have only just finished paying off his 25 year mortgage at 7.5% before watching it bulldozed. What then? (Remember people, it's only a discussion. Share the love) ^ian^
As the building ages, the value of the land increases and the value of the structure decreases to the point that in 25 - 30 years, the value of the land is at an absolute premium due to location, whilst the value of the structure is actually in the negatives because the cost of demolition and removal is factored in.
In these instances however, as has been seen historically, the owners do very well out of any sale for demolition/reconstruction, especially the last guy to sell :-)
This is all dependent on some strata or apportioned title of the actual land the building sits on of course. Alex1111 "In these instances however, as has been seen historically, the owners do very well out of any sale for demolition/reconstruction, especially the last guy to sell " Mmm,like in the UK where a 'friend of a friend' is selling his flat worth £280.000 for £500.000 to a developer who wants to know down his block and next doors and re-build.Some people just have all the luck. xdude Interesting debate going on guys.. However i firmly believe that the real estate market is bound to go down.. for 2 reasons 1. there is a limit to which the buyers are ready to pay.. at some point even though the investors are going to be bit cautious as the relative return is going to be much lower from now onwards 2. The recent financial turmoil in the world is going to have an impact on Dubai real estate market.. the foreign money inflow is definately going to slow down thus putting further downward pressure on the property prices quatroporte
if you can't afford the current pricing that does not mean its unrealistic.
at the moment Demand is more than supply... however, it can be true to have a stable pricing after most of the project construction is completed between the end of 2009 and 2010.
I work for a multinational 5 star hotel chain and they have 4 branches in Dubai at the moment... by 2010 we will have 11 hotels in total and one of a kind resort in festival city (soon to be announced)!!! so you can estimate how foreign business are investing in Dubai. ebonics
demand is more than supply, demand by who? and why?
go to the "professionals living in student like conditions" thread and read concord's post.
the fact that russian drug dealers, weaponry tycoons and pimps are buying up property at unrealistic prices, because rents are unrealistic... doesnt make your "demand is more than supply" claim realistic either. quatroporte
so Drug dealers and weaponry tycoons and pimps are the one responsible for the high prices in Dubai!!!!! :shock:
and where did you read that???? reviewer
Are you saying that what happened in the Spanish Coast (Costa Del Sol, Marbella, Ibiza...et al) is now happening here in Dubai.....
:shock:
Then lost of expats will be in for a major shock if thats the case.... 8) sage & onion
You should not post personal details here on the open forum, if you specifically want to give someone information, thats what the PM is for. bonk
Erm, question for moderators...
Are we allowed to publicly post names and numbers and other personal details of people?
I would be annoyed, to say the least, if a colleague's fiancee (or anyone) publicly posted my name and contact details on a forum, especially if I didn't know about it.
I deleted the name from the quoted text by the way. Alex1111
Of course I have no intention of posting anyones personal details.
I don't like being called a liar but shouldn't have allowed myself to be wound up by a moron. bonk
Then why did you? Name, job and home location sound like personal details to me.


Then what would you call someone who posts personal details and says they have no intention of posting personal details?
Sounds like you have very little self-control if a moron can wind you up. I suppose you go completely beserk if someone clever winds you up then. Alex1111 Bonk your a complete moron.There are hundreds of julies in dubai,and I expect many many work for emirates.Now get lost and let people on here get back to the subject of property. Anteater My property in Sydney dropped by about $30K in 05-06 and has just now come back to what I paid for it. If you aren't on the water or beaches in Sydney you get punished with market plateaus or falls. One for you Alex1111 Alex1111
Thankyou Anteater.Got anything to say Ian?! ^ian^
$30K is a fluctuation not a drop personally. You expect ripples in a market and unless the property was worth < $300k (which I doubt in Sydney) it's not something to get up in arms about, nor is actual property value quantifiable until you go to sell it. Perhaps also it was bought for too much in the first place. (no offence AA) Still going on very little info (size, location, original price etc.) I'm not going to speculate, but on average, prices have increased solidly in Sydney (and in pretty much every Australian place) for 5 years.
Only now they're starting to slow down and stagnate.
But look, this thread is done to death. Everyone thinks they're an expert when I can tell you nobody knows what is happening with this market, and as I have said time and time again, if someone tells you they DO know, they're full of it.
Never trust an economist, even a dead one. Anteater ACE - it was only a fluctuation... better be worth millions when I get back home! :lol: So anyway Ian.... touch on tomorrow night???? ^ian^
yup touch is on tomorrow night :-) Anteater Another ACE... I'll be there!
A bit worried about your ribs??? I know intercostal injuries really hurt and take ages to settle down (hubby had one last touch season from being a bit too gung-ho against someone twice his size).
Because you can't get Panadeine try anything that has Naproxen Sodium in it - this is to Ibuprofen/Nurofen what Panadeine is to panadol. Like Ibuprofen it has a significant anti-inflammatory action and I think this would be good for you!!! I haven't tried to buy it here though, just going to assume you can get it.
Good luck, mate. Hope it settles down soon! bonk
Oh, sorry sir. I didn't know you were a moderator. As moderators go, you seem to be quite rude though. As for going off topic, I was only following your lead. You should update the forum rules to say if moderators go off topic, it doesn't mean other users can also.

Maybe. I'm a bit confused at least. Moderators are allowed to post personal details? That wasn't clear from the other moderator's post.
You surprise me too. You were much more polite when I spoke to you. MaaaD standard chartered: House prices to go up 15% this year.
quatroporte
I just came in to publish the same post :o
For everyone; it clearly says we are under-supply :!: shafique
Hmm - villas lying empty for months on end in Springs doesn't feel like under-supply to me.
But hey, I'm just an armchair observer who chooses not to borrow to play in this market. :)
Paradoxically, by definition, it would not be a bubble if people weren't talking up the market and saying 'this time it is different'.
Cheers,
Shafique quatroporte
I agree with you...
High end villas in Jumierah or springs and deluxe apartments in the Marina for example are defenitly to be empty always...
cmon... where is the supply of apartments for the likes of me and you... something we can afford that wont take 50% of our salary?!?! this is where we are under-supply and thats why we are forced to pay for the high-end apartments
everytime I try to call some of the property posts on Gulfnews, they simply give out the price out flat and they dont want to negotiate they sometimes hang-up on me!!!!!!
you should see the prices of rents in Ajman how high it is now!?! the percentage increase in Ajman is way higher of it in Dubai... a three bed apartment used to be 30K now it is 50 to 75k depending on location! and this is if you are lucky to find any empty one! (I live in Ajman :) ) ebonics drive down SZR, count how many lit up windows there are at 9pm in every building. under supply. yea right. quatroporte
to my knowledge... SZR buildings are mostly offices... anyway.
you think there are too many vacancies on SZR? why dont you live there?
answer.. too expensive!
let us it make clear... dont ever expect prices on SZR to be affordable!!! cmon this one of the most luxury roads in Dubai!
as i said before... dont simply blame everything if you can't afford it.
am not trying to be defensive... I am a victim who got forced to live in Ajman... however, if there was projects build for the medium-income families we would have got a good supply... and prices would be great..
but this country (as of now) is only targeting a specific niche group not us :cry: saswat Dear Friends,
Great to see you all in this forum!!! I apologize for this post here in this thread .I am hoping you guys would understand the importance of your opinion in my survey. Pl help me friends.
I am a student of S P Jain Center of Management , Singapore and Dubai . Our one year residential full time Global MBA Program is a unique Twin City offering, with all participants spending six months in Dubai and six months in Singapore. I am currently in the second half of the program in Dubai and pursuing a specialization in Marketing - Product Marketing and Management.
I am doing a research on "Green Branding" as part of my academic requirement. In this research my objective is to understand how consumers like you understand the "Green Concept"
I sincerely request you to share valuable inputs through a small survey –
I assure you , this survey won’t clock more than 2 minutes of your time.
I truly appreciate your cooperation.
Warm Regards,
Saswat Mohanty
Student, Product Marketing and Management
S P Jain Center of Management , Singapore Dubai
Block 5, Academic City,
P.O Box 502345
Dubai - U.A.E
Website:- Rajpete Any advise on where is should be looking for a good 2/3 bed villa to buy? which are considered the best locations? I would like to be central / near beach and shops? I am moving to Dubai in Aug with a 1 month yr old and would like something to move into sooner rather than wait for developments. Thanks qwert97 I am a new user on this forum and I will be moving to Dubai at the end of August. I have read the entire thread with a lot of interest since I was debating if I should buy or rent. Being a financial professional myself I seem to agree with "ebonics" in general that the market will not sustain in the long run. Many of the users in this thread make excellent points. I have seen the North American market myself and the exact same factors seem to apply there. In Canada e.g. about 200,000 immigrants enter the country each year and about 75% of them settle in the Toronto area. So theoretically nothing should go down. However in the past year or so there has been a technical correction and it is no longer the sellers market but the buyers market. I am pretty sure of one thing. The prices that I have seen for a 1 BR or a 2BR in Greens seems to be way over inflated right now. So although seller seem to be driving the price, very soon that will dissapear and the buyers will drive the price. Once that happens the prices will come down. There is another phenomenon which is called the 'ripple effect' which comes into play once the market starts going down. This is similar to the stock exchange. IN every market there are investors who are not smart since they have different goals. So once the market starts coming down some investors start get into the panic situation and starts selling. This actually makes the situation worse since the market is already going down and there is more supply. What I have learnt from this thread is as follows " It is better to buy property in other emirates". If you are employed in Dubai, you pay the higher rent but hopefully it will all be recovered by the increase in prices in your other property. This is a safer proposition than investing in Dubai and then seeing your equity erode in a few years. If you have to buy the property, make sure you take a huge mortgage. That may be risky in Dubai since the local laws may not allow you to walk away from the property if the underlying security goes down. In North America e.g I know people that have walked away from property and the banks ended repossessing the property. So the risk was mitigated. Lastly I only believe in independent reports. So if Citibank says that the property market will go up I will not believe that report since Citibank gets to benefit since more people will take Mortgages. Just my 2 cents. Melanie If you want to buy to avoid paying rent, now might not be the best time. Whilst a mortgage might seem cheaper, there's the hidden costs you need to factor in. A few years ago I came across quite a good spreadsheet that could tell you whether you were in front or behind on a property purchase when taken all the costs of ownership into account versus renting. You'd be surprised just how marginal the difference is. Wish I still had it but could easily recreate it I suppose. I would love to be a ginnea pig for your spreadsheet analysis. I have been reading this forum for the past couple of hours and although this was back in march and here it is august, i doubt i will be reading much difference as i continue on. My husband who is on his way to UAE now is an airline pilot and I who will be there as soon as job offer or husband sponsorship ( which ever comes first) are trying to sort out where to live, whether or not to rent or buy the first year there and if we take the housing which is cheap but free we can take our salary and invest in property there. Where do we begin ? As i stated, I have been following this forum and the replies and see so many of you have made money, have investments etc. did you all have alot of money to invest ? What is the minimal dollar investment we can make ? I welcome all your replies and feel free to educate me. I admit to being ignorant when it comes to economics and have no financial strategies except to possibly have a nice nest egg when hubby has to retire in 13 years or take a lower position in the flight deck. I am a Paramedic who will more than likely finish my education to include a BSN in Nursing to make better money. What we would like to do is own a villa approx 3k sq ft, pool, garage and own a boat at the marina no less than 32 ft. Habibi Already started ... Certain areas go down price per square feet ... State Area 18-Sep PPSF 10-Sep PPSF Change % Dubai Culture Village 3,061 3,153 -3.02% Dubai Dubai Pearl 4,314 4,617 -7.02% Dubai Emirates Hills 2,323 2,424 -4.35% Dubai Jumeirah Beach Residence 2,195 2,392 -8.98% Dubai The Palm, Jebel Ali 2,140 2,229 -4.18% There's a great updated list from yesterday on uaelist dot com Yes, it's the high end properties first, who's going to buy an Emirates Villa for 60+Mill. AED ...in other words, who's going to pay almost a 10 mill. english pound for a villa in the desert in the Middle East? The market is small for these properties, but it's starting to cool down, it starts at the top and will slowly go down to the bottom of each housing segment.... JBR with almost 9% down compared to April says something ...



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