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Dubai Stock Market crash.


Stylinexpat I wonder if this time Emaar had to sell their shares to pay the either underpayed or unpayed employees from India. This stock market is among the top 5 worst performers in 2006. These shares are at historic lows and even then no one is buying. I think the real estate market will come crashing down next. Once the share prices recover, I will be out for good and leave my money in Hong-Kong where there is a population of 1.6 Billion people that can support the market unlike Dubai that has 70% foreign underpayed or unpayed laborers. No wonder this market has not recovered. I doubt the Real-estate market would recover either after the crash that is around the corner. If one were to look at the Classifieds section for homes for rent and sale and compare it to the jobs section that payed salaries that can cover the payments on these selling homes or rental on these homes one could not stop laughing. The majority of the builders won't give loans backed by Banks until the building is finished. This means that most people would have had to have had payed of their apartment or villa by move in :shock: We can see already that this kind of cash does not exist here in Dubai or the market would have rebounded long ago in the DFM.
Dubai Knight There have been rumours and fears about the bubble bursting for years...it continues to grow, bolstered by unseen funds and hands. If the price of oil were to collapse or another fuel source fully developed to commerical viability...then the whole pack of cards would come tumbling down. :? :? :? Knight arniegang great post been saying the same thing for the last 6 months, and still the fools are buying. The smarter one's dumped off a fair while ago :wink: :wink: get rich quick wananabe's are shafted The smarter ones then buy back for a lot less than they sold for :D I cant wait :P :P jabbajabba So why are the powers to be not doing anything?? Thats what i don't understand, are we going to end up with a ghost city on the edge of the desert. I also don't see how the relates to some of the worlds worst rent rises?? I am dammed if i can work out how this country works...is it make as much as you can before it all goes pear shaped..because this situation and inflation as it stands is surely unsustainable. the_zooter JJ - I don't see how it would become a ghost city?? Stock Market crashes rarely lead to a mass-exodus from a city! Ok, I accept that a few people will be put off and will move on to the next big thing, but then there will be the people like Arnie (or some even bigger fish than him) who will come in and buy up all the cheap properties. That's called peaks and troughs! It should recover - maybe not to the levels it is now, but I can't see all that's being built is going to make it end in a ghost town - if anything, I would think it may even end up making Dubai fill up a little - all those empty apartments might end up filling up, and Dubai might become even more attractive to potential workers and investors. jabbajabba Zooter - i agree and my statement was quite extreme. I think my zealous reponse comes from being my wallet just being hit for ones years rent. As you can imagine if i was a property investor, i would proberbly be shouting from the other side of the fence. Stylinexpat I have yet to see all those apartments get sold and be bought up by the current underpayed and unpayed laborers in Dubai that sell for over 1,000,000 Dhms. and are rented out for 80,000+ Dhms. per year. If one were to open a local newspaper and look at how many apartments were available to rent at 85K-140K per year and compare that to the number of jobs available with those salaries one would start laughing at the differences. The big crash is yet to come and when it does come it will be making headlines worldwide. Dubai simply does not have high paying salaries to be covering their rental requests on aprtments and villas along with the living standards of where the government has a monopoly on (an example would be Etisalat and blocking of Skype) among others. If people want to buy a retirement home they would more likely buy one in Thailand over Dubai because there life is cheap and one that is not working usually can't afford high expenses for basic stuff after they have retired. This is the same exact reason as to why Hawaii has plummeted and does not get any return visits by the Japanese and Americans. Most Americans now head towards Mexico for cheap vacation trips. No one wants to get away and spend $300+ to sit at a hotel on the beach and Pick up a chick for the night for another $300 :roll: The average person can't afford to spend $600-800 a day on basics while on a trip. As far as families are concerned one would also have to think twice about taking their family on a vacation to Dubai with $300 Plus room nights when they could get $50-80 per night room rates in Thailand or Malaysia. Dubai's stock market has proven to be a failure of the local economy in Dubai and the local high prices of expenses will prevent people from moving into Dubai and make foreign visitors or travelleres think twice about returning to Dubai. This is very sad to see. I myself have lost a lot of money in the last drop of where the DFM dropped. When the market recovers and if I will transfer my money to Hong-Kong to where the market is more stable and has better support. The Hong-Kong market has 1.6 Billion Chinese people behind it as to where the local market in Dubai has underpayed foreign laborers that can't afford to by shares in the local market. Others can barely pay their bills and don't have extra money to invest in the local market. The locals only buy in on IPO'S where they can't go wrong and the Good IPO'S are only offered to locals. The locals that commit crimes are usually then pardoned only to commit more crimes. KeithL You guys remind me of the people in NYC who hold up signs and say that the "World Will End.... tomorrow" :lol: Stylinexpat
Only difference is that people in New York make good money, so I doubt New York would not recover. :wink: I see your point though. I'm just hoping that the government in the Emirates changes the way they do things to help revive the local economy that is being battered these days. sage & onion
Right on Kieth :lol:

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KeithL Styline, from your nick I assume that you are an expat... but instead of just analysing, have you plunged into the property market?? Instead of trying to make money on a weak and immature stock exchange, I'd have invested something in real estate... something not very big but instead of spending absurd amounts of money on rent, get yourself a 1bed apt... I bet you have already spent much more than what it costs on renting out a place so far yorky500
Are you talking about Hong Kong or China? The Hang Seng is doing damn well in the two years since I left HK. I wish i had kept my shares going there! sage & onion
Those that purchased a couple of years ago have really done well, in today's market I am not so sure though fayz This thread was an interesting read and i enjoyed it thank you. Stylin, one thing you mention you are 'stuck' in the market and will pull out as soon as it recovers and then give very good reasons why it won't. when your shares dropped 10 fils you probably said, hmmm this isn't good but I'll hold off can't sell now I'll lose X dirhams, now you are hoping that it goes back up to X so you can reduce your losses. The next week in the market will stabilize and may even go up a bit but good advice to anyone investing is set a certain loss limit and don’t cry, hold and hope when a planned investment doesn’t go right. The markets here both real estate and Stocks are in their infancy as people mention above, it is equivalent to penny shares, or going to the casino, people are making money but way more are losing. Stylinexpat
I have 2 units that I bought a couple of years ago and I have put them for sale before they too take a plunge. Stylinexpat
Hong-Kong, great market with great returns.. Stylinexpat
I agree with what you said. More or less this is not a market here in Dubai but more or less like a casino. Stylinexpat They will probably give the stocks away for free in the near future and still not have any takers in the future!! Who do they expect to buy?? Are they expecting the 2000+ laborers building Burj Dubai to buy some shares in the DFM? :roll: sage & onion
Why not, they all have Mashraq Bank certificates already :lol:
Stylinexpat More bad news to follow as the Tadawul is now down over 5% in the morning trade. After that some will go to pray and others to commit suicide. Evening session after prayers will probably bring more blood. Hopefully they won't blame Bush and the Jews for there stock losses :lol: /!ut/p/_s.7_0_A/7_0_49I arniegang Style dealing in shares, risk is the name of the game i am affraid. If you cant afford to loose it, dont do it. I dont know your age, but those of my era, still remember the effects of "black monday" in the late 80's. Lessons learnt by many of us, and the lessons learnt the quickest are the ones that cost you money. I lost '000's. Like Fayz says, the market in the ME is still in its infancy, but the rules remain the same whichever market you dabble in old or new. After my huge losses back then, i moved into property, and have never bought a single share since. St.Lucifer Dont you guys know how it works? If anyone gets the original of this story pls post it :) Long ago in a small village, there were lots of monkeys and good hearted ppl living in. One fine day a neatley dressed uptown gentleman comes to the village and announces himself as the International Trading Groups's representative for the region. He tells them that they export monkeys to other countries. And they are ready to pay up to 30$ per monkey. The first few villegers who heard it, go in to the jungle and hunt down some monkeys and hand it over to the ITG man. He gives them the money, packs all the monkeys and goes. Those who made money become happy, who didnt hear abt the news get sad. After couple of months, the ITG man returns to the town and tells them that he needs more monkeys as the quality of monkies they supplied were too good and the company would give 50$ per monkey. But this time, more people get involved in the hunting as they were all waiting for the ITG man to return. They get back with rest of the monkeys left in the village, the ITG Man pays them the agreed 50$ per monkey and takes all the monkeys with him. after couple of months .. ITG man comes to the village and keeps an open meeting where he introduces his Boss, ITG boss. ITG Boss appreciates the good work of the villagers and the quality of the monkeys they supplied. He then declares... he needs another full load of monkey's for which he's ready to pay even upto 100$ per monkey.He leaves the town reminding the villegers that , after a month he would personally come to pick up the monkeys for 100$ each. Now the villagers get very happy with the 100$ per monkey offer. But they realize that they have no monkeys left out to hunt n sell. So they approach the ITG man who advices them to do what ever but not to loose the opportunity. And extending his help he says he can get them some good number of monkeys for just 75$ each. The villagers get extremely happy and buy all the monkeys from the ITG man for just 75$ each. They thank the ITG man for helping them with the supply.The ITG man leaves the palce. After a month the ITG boss comes and says, there's a sudden down fall in the demand for monkeys. but still he can offer them 50$ per monkey. :D Thats how stock market works.. arniegang nice one St L :wink: sage & onion
We don't have any monkeys in Dubai!!!!! arniegang i could possibly disagree with you SGO. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: sage & onion
WHO YOU CALLING A MONKEY :wink: the_zooter
Hmm, I didn't think you were in Dubai that often, Arnie!! :lol: arniegang
noooooooooo not you matey, i was refering to the other type of monkey, usually found in taxi's.
Like the one 2 weeks ago that took my friends from the airport to my appt after a 2 hour tour of DM, DMC, DIC and Jebel Ali, saying he was new to DXB. Yea right :roll: Stylinexpat DFM opens in the red again today. hack88 hehe...i'm not into stock market issues:D fayz
But watch what people are doing and you'll get a better understanding of how people are making money.
it is now 10:30 30 mins after the open, Amlak's low for the day is 5.88 and the high is 6.00 or a difference of 2 %, people that bought and sold at the right time made that today.
Look at Tamweel 4.40 - 4.47, Du 6.89 - 7.06, watch the bounces and you'll see why people are still making money.
Making 2 % per trade and trading 5 times a day nets you a decent profit even after commissions. This is what people do in the market. fayz oh and it also reiterates my casino analogy. Now you choose are you betting on red or black hehehehe. ineedacoolnick What do you all think about the DFM IPO? As with any IPO its going to be majorly oversubscribed. Even if someone puts in 100,000 dhs worth of shares (minimum for non-UAE nationals), I doubt they'd get more than a 100 or so shares. Expect trading to be even less for the next 2-3 weeks as everyones money will be put in for the IPO. fayz It is a tough call, I'm trying to decide whether to go or not, I'm guessing for every 100,000 you'll be lucky to get about 300 shares so like you say it isn't really even worth it. I guess we have 9 more days to decide. Stylinexpat
I spent two days of going through Hell in the middle of the summer heat applying for an IPO that got listed in Abu Dhabi. Of the 500,000 Dhms. I had payed for the Subscription I was alocated a nasty 643 shares of Dana Gas shares. Will never do this again. gtmash
100,000! Dang, I don't think I'll even touch the local market. Let them shoot themselves in the foot. Stylinexpat
That was the minimum for non-locals but the minimum was different depending on the Nationalities. Many Saudis got 5000+ shares and they only payed around 5000-25000 Dhms. I got screwed over along with many other Americans and Europeans. They sure know how to lure in foreign investors from America and Europe! fayz just a shameless plug, for share specific discussions you may also wish to visit. / (let them know fayz sent you, hahaha) if you also speak/read arabic this is a much more active site. ineedacoolnick If you know any UAE nationals who work for Dubai Government or are retired...they can apply in the Preferred tranche - 15,000 shares, supposedly guranteed.. Ofcourse, if there are more than 26,226 (or some funny number like that), then it goes on a pro-rata basis. That's what I wanted to do, but can't think of anyone I know whos retired or in Dxb Government , who isnt buying the shares for themselves! :( Stylinexpat Still opening in the red everyday. Apparently recently the local authorities have taken a very hard stance against working women and have had undercover police in street clothes placed outside of The Cyclone and they are randomly apprehending many women on a daily basis as they walk in or out of The Cyclone. Perhaps now the government thinks that many locals and tourists are spending their money on women or prostitution and since their is not much liquidity in the local economy these days they are taking it out on the working women in Dubai. The local economic situation in Dubai is not good these days as one can see from the economic side that there is not much liquidity among the expats in Dubai ( We won't mention the locals as we all know how the majority of them earn their money). ineedacoolnick
We do?
How please? :) Stylinexpat
Well for a start, all of them usually get pardoned within a year for their crimes commited and over 85% of the crimes commited by locals are financially related. The same crooks conning foreign expats in Dubai are usually pardoned only to commit more crimes. A perfect example of a local crook who was recently set free again can be seen at
rooz yo people, look for other types of investments,,, ur talking about stocks in uae, come on people, we all know that people there dont have a clue on what they're doing, they just buy and hold and pump in more money, properties will fall soon, i say 2007 2008 when all these huge towers are done, supplying at high prices with a lot less demand, any way, im a forex and gold bullion trader, i know u all people think its a market where u cant make any money, ive been in this business for 3 years now and im absolutely convinced about it, people loss coz they r EMOTIONAL ABOUT IT!!!! stop doing that ull make more than what u can ever imagine, and u dont have to put in that much money as in stocks or properties, pm me for further infos, or .... Stylinexpat I'm very happy that the market manged to hold 3 days of recovery so far. I hope that when the Market opens on Sunday it continues its gains rather then fli a u-turn and head back the other way! Since I own a lot of Tamweel shares I'm very happy of their announcement to issue share-holders 10% cash dividend. I assume though they will issue their didvidend based on the issuing price of 1 Dhm. Since they did not mention it, this is what it must be. I can not read Arabic nor write. If someone here could read and be helpful enough to translate for me, I would be very greatful and thankful.
[color=blue][/color] Jamal now i gots no idea on how stocks trade .. rise an plumet an all that .... but even a dumb ass nigga like me know's that the uae stock market is as fake as it can get ... i mean common pls someone explain to me how will the stocks of a company like etisalat drop .. without no competition???????? or how will emmar stocks drop and rise ???? due to what ??? first of all why they even got stock's??? claimin what?? ... i mean if the dollar drop aint everythin in this country suppose to drop aswell ... since the uae has made there currency an economy be attached an run by the dollar.. its all a massive gimmick ... an couple of nigga's that is makin money of it .. are fueling the gimmick ... but we all know wat da deal be. Stylinexpat
Emaar raises some of its money through the stock market by insider trading because had this been not true then Emmar would be declaring how much stocks they own and when they buy and sell. Most companies in New York that are listed on Nasdaq tell you who owns what and how much along with if they were going to sell any of their shares. This doesn't happen in Dubai. Etisalat has no competition and practices a monopoly which is against Islamic rules. It is against Islamic rules to hold a monopoly and over charge consumers. Etisalat charges more then double to triple of what others do in other countries but they have no competition so they could do so in a Halal way that is. :wink: I too would have this great vision if I had all this income in the Emirates from the Monopoly of property,Telecommunication,gas & oil, infrastructure along with all the other things one can think of. sage & onion
What about Du??? Stylinexpat Du gets their line from Etisalat :happy1: sage & onion
Still competition, and if you will notice Etisalat has started to drop some of their prices. Stylinexpat
True but very minimal at best. sage & onion
When I first took an Al Shamil line it was 300 now it is 90, that's not bad Stylinexpat Stylinexpat Like I had said before was that people in the Emirates don't have much spare cash to throw around which can easily be seen from this last stock market crash. The maket has been unable to recover due to the fact that there is little disposable cash.. &section=business scot1870 It's very little to do with disposable cash. Disposable cash is only useful for a stock market to sustain stock prices above what they are worth - as happened last year. The reason the stock market hasn't recovered to last year's levels is that the stocks weren't worth that much. Stocks are prices essentially on the asset base and future cash flow of a company and find their right level when there's only really big institutions in the market. What happened last year was too many amateurs pushing up the prices and then getting their fingers burned. Part of my job is to value companies, there seems to be some unddervalued stocks at the moment but most I've seen are about right or even overpriced. MaaaD scott you might find this website interesting: ^ian^
Yes, but they're all too quick to blame the Emiratees for this aren't they. FWIW, Emiratees lost a lot of money too on the exchange. sabiqoon
Please, would you share with us here the names of the undervalued ones. jabbajabba
I disagree here s&o
The whole Du-be-do thing is a very clever piece of marketing, but it's not competition.
They come across as an upward new brand allowing users freedom and expression, young and vibrant and full of innovation. Bill boards of people welcoming rain from the skys - number porting, faster services etc etc.
Meanwhile Etisalat pocket a huge share of the du's profits and get to regulate the industrys capital without appearing as a monopoly.
Lot's of buisnesses do this in a free market - you buy up the competition price down and kill all the others off. The main difference here is that they have created their own competition to save any risks of being undercut and priced out. sage & onion
JJ, I will save any further comment until they actually start, one thing I know is that the quality of telephony from Sahm & DIC is real lousy Stylinexpat
Monopoly as usual :roll: Keep the money in the family. liverpool4ever I can't believe how some people are so excited about Du believing that the prices will drop and that it will be a perfect competition... I mean, the only reason why I would think of applying there is because my phone number 'looks' better there with the 055 prefix, maybe would be able to sell it off at a good price (I hope)... Perfect comp. my arse, where is the competition exactly when they use the same infrastructure more or less? Go through the same regulatory authorities? (For blocking sites and such)... Bull crap The stock market is a joke here, although I have no clue about money and financial issues and stocks, but it's there for all to see... What used to piss me off before the first market crash was how everyone jumped on the bandwagon, people who put so much at stake and considered themselves 'real traders' thinking it was a proper market, I feel sorry for them for all the losses they made eventually, but even a monetary idiot like me has heard of something called diversifying risks! Rant over St.Lucifer Okie u stockies have atleast something to cheer up..? there seems like a bit of light in the market.. Stylinexpat
I hope that light stays light up. At the end of the session on Thursday (just before the market closed) the market erased all gains made in that day meaning that it wasn't able to hold the gains. People seem to rather want the cash over the shares. When my investment comes back to breaking even, I will get out of this market and put my money into the real-estate in Guangzhou, China. The market in China for real-estate is very strong now and with 1.6 Billion people in China there are many customers. Guangzhou also attracts foreign buyers as well but one knows that the local market is very strong. Dubai depends on foreign investors to buy whether it be stocks or real-estate. There are many people from Hong-Kong buying in Guangzhou area as well. Last year prices rose 20%. If you grab a local paper in Guangzhou, you won't find 50+ pages of places to rent or sell like you will in Dubai's Gulf News. St.Lucifer Also consider indian market. if ur lookin at long term gains.. short terms.. u may just have to wait a bit more for some major corrections and then.. buy off n u'll surely have a good bull run. well my thoughts.. Stylinexpat
Indian Market should be really good. Strong local support from the local economy. There are many locals there that have money.



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