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Alex1111 · Mar 23, 2008

Anteater wrote:My property in Sydney dropped by about $30K in 05-06 and has just now come back to what I paid for it.
If you aren't on the water or beaches in Sydney you get punished with market plateaus or falls.
One for you Alex1111

Thankyou Anteater.Got anything to say Ian?!

^ian^ · Mar 23, 2008

Alex1111 wrote:
Anteater wrote:My property in Sydney dropped by about $30K in 05-06 and has just now come back to what I paid for it.
If you aren't on the water or beaches in Sydney you get punished with market plateaus or falls.
One for you Alex1111

Thankyou Anteater.Got anything to say Ian?!

$30K is a fluctuation not a drop personally. You expect ripples in a market and unless the property was worth < $300k (which I doubt in Sydney) it's not something to get up in arms about, nor is actual property value quantifiable until you go to sell it. Perhaps also it was bought for too much in the first place. (no offence AA) Still going on very little info (size, location, original price etc.) I'm not going to speculate, but on average, prices have increased solidly in Sydney (and in pretty much every Australian place) for 5 years.

Only now they're starting to slow down and stagnate.

But look, this thread is done to death. Everyone thinks they're an expert when I can tell you nobody knows what is happening with this market, and as I have said time and time again, if someone tells you they DO know, they're full of it.

Never trust an economist, even a dead one.

Anteater · Mar 23, 2008

ACE - it was only a fluctuation... better be worth millions when I get back home!
:lol:

So anyway Ian.... touch on tomorrow night????

^ian^ · Mar 23, 2008

Anteater wrote:ACE - it was only a fluctuation... better be worth millions when I get back home!

So anyway Ian.... touch on tomorrow night????

yup touch is on tomorrow night :-)

Anteater · Mar 23, 2008

Another ACE... I'll be there!

A bit worried about your ribs??? I know intercostal injuries really hurt and take ages to settle down (hubby had one last touch season from being a bit too gung-ho against someone twice his size).

Because you can't get Panadeine try anything that has Naproxen Sodium in it - this is to Ibuprofen/Nurofen what Panadeine is to panadol. Like Ibuprofen it has a significant anti-inflammatory action and I think this would be good for you!!! I haven't tried to buy it here though, just going to assume you can get it.

Good luck, mate. Hope it settles down soon!

bonk · Mar 23, 2008

Alex1111 wrote:Now get lost and let people
on here get back to the subject of property.

Oh, sorry sir. I didn't know you were a moderator. As moderators go, you seem to be quite rude though. As for going off topic, I was only following your lead. You should update the forum rules to say if moderators go off topic, it doesn't mean other users can also.

Alex1111 wrote:Bonk your a complete moron.

Maybe. I'm a bit confused at least. Moderators are allowed to post personal details? That wasn't clear from the other moderator's post.

You surprise me too. You were much more polite when I spoke to you.

MaaaD · Mar 23, 2008

standard chartered: House prices to go up 15% this year.

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/514367-p ... 008---bank

Massive housing shortages within Dubai's booming property market will thrust real estate prices up 15% this year, according to a report by Standard Chartered.

The bank said the emirate’s real estate market faced years of undersupply due to population growth and project delays.

“Our view is that we will see growth rates of around 15% in real estate prices this year. We would view any rises above this as a sign of overheating," Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, senior economist at Standard Chartered, said in the report.

"Residential demand has not been fully met by supply, because of higher than expected population growth, and because the supply side has been unable to deliver the planned units."

New demand for residential units is estimated at around 70,000 a year, but the supply is only 57,000 units, with insiders suggesting that only a third of the residential units planned for 2007 have been delivered, the report said.

Dubai’s projected population growth rate of 10% per annum would also well exceed the emirate’s planned housing and infrastructure capacity, it said.

The report said prices in the commercial sector would also continue to rise, despite the large number of units expected to come onto the market.

“A substantial amount of office space is expected to come onto the market in the next 18 to 36 months, which could ease price pressures, but we do not see prices collapsing in this environment,” Dauba-Pantanacce said.

Dauba-Pantanacce said concerns that Dubai's property market was a "bubble" waiting to burst were unjustified as the market was underpinned by very strong fundamentals.

However, he said sector needed urgent management to stop it overheating due to inflation, which hit a 19-year high of 9.3% in 2006, the latest official figure.

Dauba-Pantanacce called on the UAE to revalue or sever its link to the US currency to help fight inflation.

“Because of the dollar peg, the expansionary policy of the Fed is being imported into the Gulf, meaning that borrowers are being rewarded and the clear danger is more speculative inflows into the housing market,” he warned.

Sky-high house prices in Dubai will rocket even further this year as the price of materials and wages drive up construction costs, Egyptian investment bank EFG-Hermes said on Tuesday.

Egyptian investment bank EFG-Hermes in January predicted UAE house prices would rise by 5-10% this year, but last month said strong demand for property, coupled with a housing supply shortage, were likely to push prices up even further.

quatroporte · Mar 24, 2008

MaaaD wrote:standard chartered: House prices to go up 15% this year.

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/514367-p ... 008---bank

I just came in to publish the same post

For everyone; it clearly says we are under-supply :!:

shafique · Mar 24, 2008

quatroporte wrote:
MaaaD wrote:standard chartered: House prices to go up 15% this year.

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/514367-p ... 008---bank

I just came in to publish the same post

For everyone; it clearly says we are under-supply

Hmm - villas lying empty for months on end in Springs doesn't feel like under-supply to me.

But hey, I'm just an armchair observer who chooses not to borrow to play in this market.

Paradoxically, by definition, it would not be a bubble if people weren't talking up the market and saying 'this time it is different'.

Cheers,
Shafique

quatroporte · Mar 24, 2008

shafique wrote:
quatroporte wrote:
MaaaD wrote:standard chartered: House prices to go up 15% this year.

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/514367-p ... 008---bank

I just came in to publish the same post

For everyone; it clearly says we are under-supply

Hmm - villas lying empty for months on end in Springs doesn't feel like under-supply to me.

But hey, I'm just an armchair observer who chooses not to borrow to play in this market.

Paradoxically, by definition, it would not be a bubble if people weren't talking up the market and saying 'this time it is different'.

Cheers,
Shafique

I agree with you...

High end villas in Jumierah or springs and deluxe apartments in the Marina for example are defenitly to be empty always...

cmon... where is the supply of apartments for the likes of me and you... something we can afford that wont take 50% of our salary?!?! this is where we are under-supply and thats why we are forced to pay for the high-end apartments

everytime I try to call some of the property posts on Gulfnews, they simply give out the price out flat and they dont want to negotiate they sometimes hang-up on me!!!!!!

you should see the prices of rents in Ajman how high it is now!?! the percentage increase in Ajman is way higher of it in Dubai... a three bed apartment used to be 30K now it is 50 to 75k depending on location! and this is if you are lucky to find any empty one! (I live in Ajman

)

ebonics · Mar 24, 2008

drive down SZR, count how many lit up windows there are at 9pm in every building.

under supply. yea right.

quatroporte · Mar 24, 2008

ebonics wrote:drive down SZR, count how many lit up windows there are at 9pm in every building.

under supply. yea right.

to my knowledge... SZR buildings are mostly offices... anyway.

you think there are too many vacancies on SZR? why dont you live there?

answer.. too expensive!

let us it make clear... dont ever expect prices on SZR to be affordable!!! cmon this one of the most luxury roads in Dubai!

as i said before... dont simply blame everything if you can't afford it.

am not trying to be defensive... I am a victim who got forced to live in Ajman... however, if there was projects build for the medium-income families we would have got a good supply... and prices would be great..

but this country (as of now) is only targeting a specific niche group not us :cry:

saswat · Apr 07, 2008

Dear Friends,

Great to see you all in this forum!!! I apologize for this post here in this thread .I am hoping you guys would understand the importance of your opinion in my survey. Pl help me friends.

I am a student of S P Jain Center of Management , Singapore and Dubai . Our one year residential full time Global MBA Program is a unique Twin City offering, with all participants spending six months in Dubai and six months in Singapore. I am currently in the second half of the program in Dubai and pursuing a specialization in Marketing - Product Marketing and Management.

I am doing a research on "Green Branding" as part of my academic requirement. In this research my objective is to understand how consumers like you understand the "Green Concept"

I sincerely request you to share valuable inputs through a small survey –

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=Te1LCPEQ9zQcWymW18KqDA_3d_3d
I assure you , this survey won’t clock more than 2 minutes of your time.

I truly appreciate your cooperation.

Warm Regards,

Saswat Mohanty
Student, Product Marketing and Management
S P Jain Center of Management , Singapore Dubai
Block 5, Academic City,
P.O Box 502345
Dubai - U.A.E
Website:- www.spjain.org

Rajpete · Jun 16, 2008

Any advise on where is should be looking for a good 2/3 bed villa to buy? which are considered the best locations? I would like to be central / near beach and shops? I am moving to Dubai in Aug with a 1 month yr old and would like something to move into sooner rather than wait for developments. Thanks

qwert97 · Jul 08, 2008

I am a new user on this forum and I will be moving to Dubai at the end of August. I have read the entire thread with a lot of interest since I was debating if I should buy or rent.

Being a financial professional myself I seem to agree with "ebonics" in general that the market will not sustain in the long run. Many of the users in this thread make excellent points.

I have seen the North American market myself and the exact same factors seem to apply there. In Canada e.g. about 200,000 immigrants enter the country each year and about 75% of them settle in the Toronto area. So theoretically nothing should go down. However in the past year or so there has been a technical correction and it is no longer the sellers market but the buyers market. I am pretty sure of one thing. The prices that I have seen for a 1 BR or a 2BR in Greens seems to be way over inflated right now. So although seller seem to be driving the price, very soon that will dissapear and the buyers will drive the price. Once that happens the prices will come down.

There is another phenomenon which is called the 'ripple effect' which comes into play once the market starts going down. This is similar to the stock exchange. IN every market there are investors who are not smart since they have different goals. So once the market starts coming down some investors start get into the panic situation and starts selling. This actually makes the situation worse since the market is already going down and there is more supply.

What I have learnt from this thread is as follows " It is better to buy property in other emirates". If you are employed in Dubai, you pay the higher rent but hopefully it will all be recovered by the increase in prices in your other property. This is a safer proposition than investing in Dubai and then seeing your equity erode in a few years. If you have to buy the property, make sure you take a huge mortgage. That may be risky in Dubai since the local laws may not allow you to walk away from the property if the underlying security goes down. In North America e.g I know people that have walked away from property and the banks ended repossessing the property. So the risk was mitigated.

Lastly I only believe in independent reports. So if Citibank says that the property market will go up I will not believe that report since Citibank gets to benefit since more people will take Mortgages.

Just my 2 cents.

Melanie · Aug 11, 2008

If you want to buy to avoid paying rent, now might not be the best time. Whilst a mortgage might seem cheaper, there's the hidden costs you need to factor in. A few years ago I came across quite a good spreadsheet that could tell you whether you were in front or behind on a property purchase when taken all the costs of ownership into account versus renting. You'd be surprised just how marginal the difference is. Wish I still had it but could easily recreate it I suppose.

I would love to be a ginnea pig for your spreadsheet analysis. I have been reading this forum for the past couple of hours and although this was back in march and here it is august, i doubt i will be reading much difference as i continue on. My husband who is on his way to UAE now is an airline pilot and I who will be there as soon as job offer or husband sponsorship ( which ever comes first) are trying to sort out where to live, whether or not to rent or buy the first year there and if we take the housing which is cheap but free we can take our salary and invest in property there. Where do we begin ? As i stated, I have been following this forum and the replies and see so many of you have made money, have investments etc. did you all have alot of money to invest ? What is the minimal dollar investment we can make ? I welcome all your replies and feel free to educate me. I admit to being ignorant when it comes to economics and have no financial strategies except to possibly have a nice nest egg when hubby has to retire in 13 years or take a lower position in the flight deck. I am a Paramedic who will more than likely finish my education to include a BSN in Nursing to make better money. What we would like to do is own a villa approx 3k sq ft, pool, garage and own a boat at the marina no less than 32 ft.

Habibi · Sep 19, 2008

Already started ...

Certain areas go down price per square feet ...

State Area 18-Sep PPSF 10-Sep PPSF Change %
Dubai Culture Village 3,061 3,153 -3.02%
Dubai Dubai Pearl 4,314 4,617 -7.02%
Dubai Emirates Hills 2,323 2,424 -4.35%
Dubai Jumeirah Beach Residence 2,195 2,392 -8.98%
Dubai The Palm, Jebel Ali 2,140 2,229 -4.18%

There's a great updated list from yesterday on uaelist dot com

Yes, it's the high end properties first, who's going to buy an Emirates Villa for 60+Mill. AED ...in other words, who's going to pay almost a 10 mill. english pound for a villa in the desert in the Middle East?

The market is small for these properties, but it's starting to cool down, it starts at the top and will slowly go down to the bottom of each housing segment....

JBR with almost 9% down compared to April says something ...

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